WHY UNAI EMERY MIGHT THROW ARSENAL GAME
They were dark days indeed, my friends. Unai Emery took the Arsenal job, and I was not happy about it from day one. I tried to hide my disdain for the hire (for 3 hours), but I knew that he’d not be the right fit over the long term.
In the end, I was right. Arteta was the promised land. The Emery-istas have been firmly mudded. But the karmic forces have not forgiven me and they regularly slap me in the form of Arsenal punishments (Villareal and Villa in December).
This weekend, Emery has the chance to destroy our title dreams. If he does, it’ll be my fault.
But… are there clues as to why this might not happen?
Here’s the thinking. The Europa Conference represents UEFA coefficient points. The more points England achieves against Germany, the more likely the 5th place UCL position goes to England. Emery has the chance to impact that final number where I believe all Euro comps at this point have the same level of points that contribute to the total.
So what do we know about Emery?
The man is a playboy, he was having affairs in London with the white witch, he’s a big dog alpha male who loves winning things. He has an ego like all the best managers do, and his not winning a trophy at Arsenal dented his rep.
What do we know about Villa?
They haven’t won a trophy since 1996. That’s 27 years. If Unai can win something for Villa, that’s a new 5 year deal at a higher number than he’s on now. It also cements him as a legend at a big club.
This is what he said in January.
“To win a cup is very difficult, and here in England I think it’s more difficult than in other countries.
“I want to do something but every opportunity I have is a challenge.”
Trophies are on his mind and we know the sort of trophies he’s good at winning… the European variety. Here’s what he had to say about playing Lille in the quarters of the Europa Conference.
“We are having experiences and that is most important, being competitive and trying to be successful.
“We are excited and we wanted to get the opportunity we have in front of us in the quarter-final of the Conference League.
“For us, it’s very important to try to focus on this way because everything we did before was getting us to the quarter-final and trying to enjoy the moment we have.”
What am I reading here? That the priority is a trophy.
What stands in his way?
Lille’s next two games are Villa. No Ligue 1 games. Emery is clearly rattled by this. It will be affecting his thinking because Villa have played a lot of games.
“Lille is the same. Respect the competition and respect the opponent. They have experiences in Europe, Lille as a team. I know their president is very competitive and an experienced man in Europe.
“They are focusing on this competition and this quarter-final, not playing between two matches against us in the French league. They have good players with good experiences in Europe.
“They have a good coach, Fonseca, an experienced coach. They have very good players, individually. They are a very competitive team with a very good coach.”
What do we know about Villa in the Premier League?
Manchester United are not catching Villa or Spurs. 4th or 5th is not a trophy for Emery.
So let’s sum this all up:
Villa is guaranteed top 5 this season bar a catastrophe
The better English clubs do in Europe, the higher the chance the EPL gets the 5th CL spot
Beating Lille adds to the chances of securing Champions League (because of coefficients)
Lille has a straight shot at Villa with no games in-between
If you are Emery – are you going all-in against Arsenal? Or would you rotate because of the context of the moment?
Are you risking the fitness of players that are tweaking?
Are you risking your very best players in a high-intensity game?
If you have a big ego, what is more important… 5th place in the league, or ANOTHER European trophy?
I think you know the answer to all those questions.
… and as a little reminder. 2 seasons ago, David Moyes put all his chips on beating Arsenal in the league despite having a chance at Champions League qualification if he could beat Eintracht Frankfurt in the semis of the Europa League. He fatigued his side and West Ham went out 4 days later. It was a very dumb decision.
Question is this: What is more important to Unai? Avenging my aggressive blogging… or a trophy for Villa?
We’ll wait and find out.
See you in the comments.