TITLE RIVALS (LONG READ)

AN EXPLORATION OF WHO OUR TITLE RIVALS ARE WITH A REALLY STUPID GRAPHIC FOR NO REASON.

Jamil Alessandro is back with another guest post - the man has a relentless dedication to the long read. Show him some love in the comments and let him know your hot takes on his views.

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Title Rivals:

With Liverpool vs City on Sunday…a game that obviously has huge ramifications for the title race (that we’ve officially given up on ) I thought it’d be a good time to do a little low-down

1. City at Sea

City vs Tottenham has got to be the most gut-wrenchingly awful fixture for an Arsenal fan. Wanting them to win, even for a fleeting second, in the deepest depths of private thought, just feels dirty and wrong.

In a weird twist of fate they’re basically the only team we can ever bank on to take points off City. Except for the one time when it really mattered…which left even their own manager having a meltdown at how unprecedented the depths of their loser mentality were.

These are the kind of rivalries, by the way, that City simply don’t have:

No spiteful London derbies, no reheated Premier League golden age rivalries, no deep-seated fanbase hatreds. Home at the Etihad, away at capitulating teams that normally give up after 10 minutes or look at the fixture as an opportune time to rotate or rest places.

Or at least that’s how it’s been for the past seasons.

City are in the doldrums right now.

This isn’t the odd complacent away draw, or slow start to the season. Losing 5 on the bounce and shipping 4 at home to SP*RS would be a grim run for any team. It also makes the marginal gains that went for them in previous years all the more irksome. If they had this run of form at any point in the last 2 seasons, we’d have a Premier League medal.

Anyway.

Add to that a CAPITULATION. We’ve never seen that before.

One thing I’ve always loved about Pep is his insistence that managers can only affect performance level. However well you prepare, the result ™ always has a healthy dose of randomness thrown in.

But throwing away three goals. Players blaming each other and making kamikaze runs. That’s the kind of stuff that sticks on the brain. That tells you you’ve lost your plot armour as the invincible protagonists of the league. We’re in unknown territory.

Pep signing a new deal was supposed to signal the continuation of his elaborate decade-long winning machination.

His extension divided Arsenal fans. On one hand delaying the time when we might have a clear run for the title which would pave the way for our dynasty to begin. On the other hand, Pep leaving would deprive us of the joy of dethroning the king, of the master toppling the apprentice, of overcoming the team that has caused us so much pain over the years.

Hot take, maybe, but I happen to think the manager’s been by the by. City’s marginal gains have not really been down to the magic of La Masia. Genius though Guardiola is, we’ve matched City tactically in the past seasons, and I would argue we’ve had the better of them head-to-head for 5 of the last 6 fixtures. Rather its been squad depth, naivety, fixtures and referees

(*Pedro has banned me from using that word in this one)

Their blip in form is very interesting. The biggest wobble in the entirety of Pep’s career- its the glimmer of light we need after the stumbling start to the season we’ve had ourselves.

But where does it leave us?

Well, Rodri, the undisputed king of the tactical foul, winner of the ballon d’or, master of the dark arts, and conjurer of evil, is out for the rest of the season. It’s tempting to say that the most important variable for City. Their form difference with and without him is genuinely incredible.

It’s also a good reminder of just how significant a singular variable can be. Not having your best players makes a big difference- yes I am about to shill again.

Arsenal fans asking for Arteta to be sacked because we’re not quite at our fluid best without Odegaard; ignoring the fact that we’ve survived periods without our number 9, or that we ‘bottled’ the league because we lost the best defender in the league for the decisive part of the title run. There’s crazy talk about ‘decline’ when people just mean form.

The City rot goes further than an absent superstar though. The squad is ageing, creaking under the pressure of the early 30s. And the two roads of overpaid retirees vs losing key players for free.

Achilles and the west wind are calling in their debts for whatever pact Kyle Walker made with the gods for his speed. I never thought I’d see Timo Werner as an elegant player before watching him burst past the right back, leaving him for dead.

Then there’s the mammoth court case they have looming overhead, the effects of 5 years of unabated total concentration on hyper intensive details based coaching, winning fatigue, and a manager who regardless of whatever his new contract says has one eye on exit strategies and legacy…

The problem with all of this is… They’re still ahead of us.

They have the squad depth to hold on through a major injury- showcased by their time without De Bruyne, who now doesn’t even look like he’s going to get a new contract. In his absence they had Foden and Grealish battling it out for a starting role. Every year they essentially wait for one of the £50+ million signings in their roster you’d forgotten about to have a purple patch and showcase the incredible ‘man management’ skills of Guardiola.

The thing is they should also have that depth in Rodri’s position, signing Kovacic from Chelsea, and resigning Gundogan. But we can thank our lucky stars that Kalvin Phillips was a bottom 3 all time signing, and a year of sunny Spanish easy living has blunted the German’s tools.

But then there’s the fact we’re not out of the woods ourselves. In certain places we’re shorter than them. There are some big positions that we really can’t afford to miss. Ben White has been an underrated but pivotal tool in Arteta’s attacking set-up so far, it's yet to be seen how the right wing link-up play will suffer. As blood and thunder as

Tierney at Sociedad

It feels like we can go from having two of the best back 4s in Europe, to a patchy Zinchenko trying to look busy and spraying misdirected hail mary’s into the danger zone in front of the back line mirrored against the matchstick legs of Tomiyasu. The impossible to analyse Kiwior in the middle.

In the attacking positions we still kinda need Kai to win every duel let alone start every game as our spearhead. We need Saka to keep on being a tactic all in himself and drawing 4 players, and

And then there’s the question of the luck needed. I don’t agree with Pedro that the bad decisions are behind us. Hopefully the injuries are (🧿)

The reason why things haven’t gone our way so far, is something that’s not likely to let up, given how we’re viewed by

PGMOL

PGMOL

Referee

Red cards

conspiracy

Damn it still won’t let me.

2: Lucky Liverpool

Liverpool under Arne Slot have been spectacular. There’s no denying it. Top of the Premier League by some distance and looking good for it. Clear distance in the new-format Champions League Table. And a Premier League hall of famer in the form of his life. Hairline restored via Turkey (allegedly*allegedly) a decade of ice baths and yoga paying dividends for the peerless Egyptian king.

There are signs of trouble in paradise though. Under the surface, there are some very choppy currents.

Salah, VVD, Trent all threatening to exit early is a grand drama waiting in the wings.

The new manager bounce has given them wind in the sails, lifting the air to a happy place where their stars can slyly smile when asked about contracts and there’s no bad blood. A few losses though, and the pressure will no doubt start to show through. The ‘best of the rest’ team spirit will turn to resentment amongst the broader squad if the three contract rebels don’t deliver the goods. Whichever way it resolves, the Salah sideshow is going to be an unnecessary distraction heading into the endurance bloodsport of the christmas fixtures.

But the problem is those Liverpool losses are yet to come…

And that’s a big problem.

If this high-flying iteration navigates the next period, there aren’t too many hurdles to come.

I agree with Pedro that there are reasons why a Liverpool slip should be expected. But headstarts and momentum mean the most in this league. Leicester demonstrated that after a while it can take you all the way.

Egoistic superstars and protracted contract talks are part and parcel of the modern game.

Whatever caveats you want to make for their capitulation last season, we haven’t seen them so far. Yes they still rely on the gods of chaos and the manic energy of Díaz and Núñez, but watching them against Real Madrid right now, they’re mainly challenging that into exciting and direct football.

I’m seeing the once hallowed Bellingham, the cornerstone of their entire future cornered by MacCallister and Gravenbach. Kelleher look like an upgrade from the world’s best keeper (saving a pen and crucially not needing to make a save)… and Salah skin Mendy like he’s a championship reserve player…

It’s hard to think that there's a collapse around the corner.

(Okay Salah missed the pen but still. Up pops Gakpo.)

There is past form I know. Last year pointed to a squad with glossed over cracks, that needs to be running at 120% in order to keep going. But the Jürgen Klopp circus has long since departed, and with the error-strewn start to the season, even a few losses isn’t terminal this year. A couple of good results against us and City this season and it would be wraps.

And then there’s lady luck:

A few fortunate hands this season has given Liverpool a healthy lead. I’m fast becoming the guy who can’t stop going on about referees but again, it’s hard not to think of a league table that factored in soft pens and where we’d not been undone by disallowed goals and two of the softest yellows in the history of the league.

Luck is perhaps the most important variable when you’re trying to get over the line.

And there’s no sign of theirs abating. Or ours improving We can’t count on PGMOL to even out the scales, they’ve got their finger on one of them. Ever since Arteta labeled the institution a disgrace, they’ve had it out for him.

Pedro can’t stop me…referee referee referee

Okay just testing

I’d suggest the opposite: that we’d need daylight at the top of the table between us to immunise us from any future marginal calls.

Our relationship with Liverpool is a little bit weird. They’re kind of the model for us. Showing that beating City is possible, not simply by waiting for fatigued lethargy or spectacular implosion but by going head to head, point to point with them. At the same time they were part of lifting the ceiling of the prem to a point where we’re posting all time totals and not winning. I’ve always had a bit of a soft spot with them for this reason, and because they’re not the bland soulless City machine.

That said their fanbase reminded us last season that as the hated Arsenal fans we can’t dole out mercy to anyone.

I feel there had always been a bit of soft sympathy, before they were fawning over their rivalry with City. Now its evaporated. Lashing out from a place of insecurity at only having won one prem in their golden-era. Hurt people hurt others.

Liverpool also show the importance of winning. Klopp still left a premier league dynasty, despite winning once. His title was the crown that brought the near misses into the kingdom.

Arteta’s greater stability in games, our engineered, seasoned squad means that we should have the basis weather the title race turbulence in order to get over the line. Without our strongest line up we’re more balanced than Liverpool and we’ve got slightly subtler tools than them…when everyone’s fit. We’re the youngest squad in the race but we also have that experience as crazy as it is to say about our chilli starboy, baby-faced Odegaard and the teenage chosen one, Nwaneri. We have insane chemistry and the ruthless streak of the manager.

But the thing about the magic winnertivity is that you don’t have it until you actually win something.

I’m just worried about the this year’s farcical decisions (no comment on the ref currently in the news for legal reasons) representing a fucked up version of the football fates. May might already have been made in November.