MORGAN GIBBS-WHITE LINK SIGNALS FINAL ACTION INTENT
ARSENAL WANT GOALS AND THEY WANT THEM FROM PREM PROVEN PLAYERS
The powers that be have upgraded my technology. I’m convinced the only way you can truly feel the impact of progress is to not change your tools in 5-year increments. I feel like a Roman who’s been put in a Tesla. Endless possibilities at speed. I think… I could take over the world? But before I become your overlord, let’s get into what the world is talking about right now.
America. No, Americans. We gotta have a word about them. The build-up to the World Cup has been unsexy to say the least. High prices, micro-scandals all over the place, and a populace that just hasn’t really dialed in because the USMNT hasn’t exactly endeared itself to the gen pop.
But… the thing I feared most happened yesterday against Germany, a little moment that they could rally around. Some hope. America only really cares about sports they’re the best in, so when someone does something that looks like it’s the best, you’d best believe you’re going to awaken some of the worst casuals in world sport. I’m talking about the guys who go to the Waste Management Phoenix Open, the Buffalo Bills fans who jump through tables, the folk USAing at ice skating… the whole of Philly, and all of Boston’s worst.
The world is not ready for what is going to happen, they really aren’t.
You can’t deny them their moment… that goal, without doubt, is one of the best we’ve seen this year. But think about the geopolitical impact? Think of the power the American people are going to draw on here. Imagine the sound of USA USA USA dominating the world for the exact amount of time it’ll take them to get out of the group stages and get defeated in the round of 32.
America is the force it is in the world because of the insane optimism and belief in their greatness… and they’re about to show you how that translates into sport, in their backyard. How do you think that’s going to go for me? It took one draw against England in the last World Cup for my American brothers and sisters to start bringing up the Revolutionary War.
Antonee Robinson has ruined my week in a way I didn’t think was technically possible (literally, I didn’t think he had the capabilities to do something like that).
So let’s talk about Arsenal to numb the pain.
One of the drums I’ve been banging over the past 5 years is the Manchester City model for academy. They basically purchase best-in-class players at every age group through whatever means necessary, and they do this for three reasons.
The best young players in the world get trained in Pep ideals (makes them attractive).
The ones that serve a purpose at club level are elevated into the first team and they make a difference (O’Reilly).
Those that fail are sold off and generate £200m every 5 years in transfer fees which keeps the ‘net spend’ number down when they do their finances (Oscar Bobb and Emmanuel Frimpong).
Anyone can spend a lot of money, but what Man City have done better than anyone else is hire strategists who spend the cash in the most optimum way so they can dominate every specialism in the game.
Academy kids, no one can outspend them.
16-22, no one can outspend them.
23-27, no one can outspend them.
27+, they don’t really do it.
Arsenal have developed the way they coach and bring young players through, but it’s largely been organic, and we’ve done a terrible job harvesting kids for cash, and our loan approach has been diabolical.
Berta has exited all the people that built a system that could organically create a lot of elite talent, and he’s taken charge. Now he’s turbo-charging the types of names we bring to the club.
Edwin and Holger Quintero are our Ecuadorian twins, and they’re getting rave reviews. Max Dowman, the treasure of teenage football, is going to be the best player in the world. Marli Salmon will be back-up right back this season. Irish 17-year-old Victor Ozhianvuna was one of the early signings moving to a more Man City model.
Now the club are starting to move on bigger targets.
Jeremy Monga, a 16-year-old left winger, is a big move Arsenal are looking to do with Leicester.
He played 1,000 minutes for Leicester, who were relegated to League One. That is a crazy number of minutes. 2 assists and 1 goal doesn’t read like a lot on paper, but it’s really, really good. Arsenal are moving on a player who has difference maker written all over him, and when you think of Max on the right, it really does feel like the club are moving on players who are different to the monsters we’ve been looking at this season. Monga is more Cherki than Martinelli.
Arsenal have also been linked with another super teenager, Emmanuel Mbemba, PSG U19 captain, a left back.
The story is that he’ll be given the loan treatment, like Willy Saliba, then given a path into the first team that he apparently won’t get at PSG.
Neither of these moves guarantee you’ll have a player worth anything at the end. Teenagers might have all the raw ingredients to be world class, but the mental side of the game plays a huge role. Are you telling me if Emile had the same attitude as Saka he wouldn’t still be at Arsenal? Of course you aren’t. What this approach does is ensure that you’re investing coaching hours in players who are more likely to break into the first team, and if they don’t, they’re more likely to land a fee for the club.
Under the old model, we’d have one or two stars, and then leave the rest of the academy with filler players who could barely sustain a professional career. The approach now will likely be to move to a scenario where you’re getting 1 or 2 players who could compete for a squad place, with 4-6 who could command a fee.
Look at the insanity of the sales Man City dropped last season. They do this on the DL and that’s why they don’t get as much scrutiny for their net spend. But how do they get to those players? Because they are one of the top spenders to get those names to the club when they are nobodies. Sverre Nypan last year, a player Arteta didn’t even meet because he didn’t want him in the squad, was hoovered up by Man City for big money, and shipped out. This is a player Arsenal thought could compete with Odegaard one day. Now he’s part of the teenage farm at Man City. If he makes it, great. If he doesn’t, say hello to a £30m move to Southampton in 3 years.
We need to be that club, that’s why I really like these moves.
Summer sales seem to be the most dominant conversation right now. When I shortened the word dominant, did it come across sexual? I’m sorry. Didn’t mean to ruin your day that way.
Back to it…
Martinelli left an end-of-season tweet that kind of felt like a goodbye. I’m ok with it. He’s been here 7 years. He’s given his all to the cause. A player Klopp called “talent of the century” might be ready for the next move. The only thing I need to make sure of is that we land a good fee. This is a player who has won the Premier League, he starts for Brazil, he had 18 G&A this season… I am not going to allow him to move to Bayern for £45m. This is a £65m player, especially after we saw Anthony Gordon move to Barca for €80m. I want that Rhian Brewster premium. Our players are winners, they work like dogs, they’re better tactically drilled than most… it’s time for the big fees.
The scariest exit of the summer will potentially be Zubimendi. He played all the Premier League games last season and… we won the Premier League. I can’t hear that he’s not at the level. It’s the worst kind of Arsenal discourse. He’s a monster. Did he get tired? Sure. But do we want him in the squad? Yes we do.
But… there are headwinds. Myles is… kind of the guy now. 18 years old, more mature, and more suited to playing next to a bunch of beasts like Declan. Myles is a little more technical, a little more ambitious in his passing, and a touch more saucy. Is a player who starts for Spain going to accept being Norgaard next season? I don’t know. Especially not if he’s homesick for Spain… with those Madrid players chirping in his ears, this might be the shock of the summer for Arsenal.
An interesting incoming transfer is that of Morgan Gibbs-White. The English attacking midfielder is a funny old player. Clearly very talented like Morgan Rogers, but you can’t quite put your finger on it. Just one of those guys that can make the difference if he’s in the mood. Predominantly an attacking midfielder, he was responsible for 18 goals and 7 assists for a Forest side that went through 3 managers this season. That is… incredible.
The numbers above are overall grades. But they are baked against the size of the sample set. Your Gradient shooting number only goes high if you take a lot of shots. You can’t score one worldie from one shot and get a 75. It’s kind of like percentiles, but the people you’re graded against have to be people that shoot a lot. Make sense? Good.
Morgan Gibbs-White is kind of good at everything you want in an attacking midfielder. He’s more attack-focused than defensively. Ranked, in totality, against the 35 players who play the same role as him, he’s 9th in the league playing for Forest.
Dig into the data, he’s ranked 7th in the attacking midfielder category for pressured shot quality — a good number for a deep-block team like Arsenal. He’s 5th in the league for open play shooting. 14th for touch… but a lot higher than Morgan Rogers for the same metric (133rd of 136 AMs and CMs).
If the role we’re trying to fill here is someone who can break defences and do a lot of things really well, with power, pace, and aggression… then I can see why MGW is in the mixer. Could be an exciting move. Can’t write him off just because Spurs missed out on him, he’s a great player in his prime.
Can’t imagine the wildest owner in the Premier League is going to let him go for anything lower than £75m, but we’ll see!
Ok, that’s mostly all I have. You come back tomorrow, you hear? x
First!