Sometimes you watch the World Cup for players you’d rather not see in the Premier League because they are total sh*thousers. Has there been a more dominant figure in that department than Juan José Cáceres of Paraguay? My word. The man is everywhere, booting fine footballers in the air, and getting away with it like peak Ryan Shawcross. Horrible footballer, could easily see David Moyes pick him up this summer for £6m.
What we learned last night is that this approach to football against brilliant teams can reap rewards, even if they are small ones. France, the mightiest of all the teams this tournament, needed a penalty to split the game against the South American minnows. Nice to know that beautiful football has been a feature of this tournament, but there’s still a space in this world for a bit of Sam Allardici football when needed.
England play at the Azteca this evening… very much evening to early morning for the UK familia. There were rumblings that the game was going to be moved 6 hours earlier, but both teams lost their sh*t, so the game remains, in the eye of a storm, for now. BBC seem confident it’ll be ok.
“The heat won’t be a problem with temperatures around 17 to 20°C, but heavy showers will develop through the afternoon in Mexico City.”
“There’s the possibility of some scattered thunderstorms forming by late afternoon and early evening in the area, close to kick-off.
“But while there could be a delay or a pause to the match at the start, the shower and thunderstorm risk diminishes as the evening and match goes on.”
I’m 1,731 miles from the Azteca and can tell you this for free… the storms were nasty here. They blew over a tree in my garden I was looking to have removed and the sounds were quite scary. Hope that helps.
My big worry, as ever, is the fitness of the Arsenal players. 7,700 feet above sea level is kind of crazy for tired athletes who have not had 2 weeks to get used to it. Here’s a summary of what to expect.
Sport-specific findings:
In football, some studies on high-altitude venues (e.g., La Paz, Bolivia at ~3,600m) have found increased rates of muscle injuries, particularly hamstring and calf strains, in visiting teams unacclimatised to altitude.
In endurance sports, altitude increases risk of altitude illness rather than musculoskeletal injury per se, but secondary effects (dizziness, impaired coordination) can contribute to falls or missteps in technical terrain.
In American football and rugby, there’s less clear injury-rate data, but conditioning staff often flag cramping and heat/altitude combined stress as a factor.
Acclimatisation matters most:
Athletes who aren’t acclimatised (typically need 1-2 weeks minimum for meaningful physiological adaptation) face the highest injury risk — this is why teams travelling to high-altitude away games sometimes arrive extra early, or conversely fly in at the last minute to minimise the maladapted window.
Elevated resting heart rate, disrupted sleep, and reduced VO2 max all recover partially within days but full acclimatisation takes longer.
Quite fearful, mostly for dear Declan. He’s a monster, but putting him in a game where we’re going to see his body starved of oxygen makes me feel sick as a dog I have to admit.
As for the England game? Well, what an evening it’s going to be. Mexico started the World Cup in poor fashion, but they’ve grown game to game. They monstered Ecuador, a team loaded with talent, with total ease. Jiménez has been absolutely brilliant, the goal he scored in the last game was the sort of thing you watch Michael Olise do on the regular. Home crowd, altitude working for them… well, it’ll be a rough afternoon for the England boys.
As for the fans? They’ll be in heaven. Proper tacos, Modelo Especial rolling at a rate they’ll not have seen in America, a carnival-like atmosphere, and access to heart attack-inducing chemicals the likes of which they cannot imagine. If your dad was heading out there, I’d be making sure he has his affairs in order.
Madueke or Saka? The big question. If Saka doesn’t start again, you’d have to conclude that we’re in trouble for the start of next season. Madueke is a very good back-up, but if you have the choice, it’s Saka all day long. That he’s STILL not starting games makes me want to curl into a little ball outside the front of my house crying like a madman.
TRANSFER WATCH! Yes, that is how we introduce paragraphs when we’re talking about players we want to sign or players we are sad to see go.
Sad to see go? LEO BOSSARD. Luther Van Tross. The Tross. It would appear he is about to head to the land of hair plugs to give the back end of his career a little top-up of cash and sunshine. The fee is about £20m and the deal will likely be sealed before the end of the World Cup.
I like to talk out of both sides of my mouth with transfers. On the one hand, it’s great to offload a player in their 30s for any sort of fee… on the other, this is a player who reliably shows up in front of goal when we need him to. 19 goal contributions in a 2,922-minute title-winning season is pretty damn acceptable. Do we really need to be shifting on his experience right now?
This is a player who arrived at Arsenal under a cloud darker than the rings around his eyes. Arsenal had just gone to war for the signature of Mudryk and lost really badly. Chelsea gazumped us, paid the huge fee, and we were, once again, in the foetal position in the office break room crying about a player who’d barely made 30 appearances for Shakhtar. The back-up? £25m on someone known for his technical prowess and output for Brighton.
Looking back on it… what a deal. The best value deal under £30m in the last 20 years? You’re damn right. This was a prime example of why doing high-fashion things doesn’t always mean you’re doing the right thing. Mudryk was more appealing at £100m, than someone who could actually do that work at a quarter of that fee. 36 goals, 36 assists, 174 appearances. That’s really good for someone who was essentially a back-up. Crazy to think we’ll sell Trossard before Reiss Nelson. Where are all the Reiss freaks who told me giving him a long-term deal was a clever way to preserve his value?
So now the question becomes… how do we replace him? If it’s Bradley Barcola and Martinelli on the left next year, we’re in a good place. If it’s Morgan Rogers and Barcola, we’re in good shape. If it’s Eze and Barcola we’re in good shape. I just have slight worries if Andrea Berta is chumming the water and next season the option is Christos Tzolis and Eze. Not denigrating the Greek winger, who is objectively an output machine, just questioning whether we want to take a big risk on a player doing big numbers in a very weak league.
Barcola still feels like the right sort of upgrade. He might not have scored against Paraguay yesterday, but he won 50% of his 13 duels, 63% of his 8 dribbles were successful, and he created 2 chances. He feels like the right sort of player for Arsenal, especially as he has the seal of Enrique approval. But, what is the number? Who else could pump the bidding war? Are Liverpool relevant without Klopp, Trent and Mo Salah?
Ok, that takes us to the end of the blog road… more tomorrow. Have a great night in England, and please, be responsible so you can be at your best for work tomorrow. x
P.S. I gotta America 250 deal going on the subscriptions. Get on it RIGHT now and support Independent writing, literally the hottest thing you can do these days. I write 2 premium posts a week; you get access to 200 podcasts ad-free; we do LIVE just for members; there’s a Discord; and I’m now writing presentations packed full of data for the nerds out there.
As a side note to last night, Henderson was already up there for the worst ever World Cup call up. But surely not playing a minute, then hospitalising himself during the post match celebrations, cements the number one spot. He makes Kim Kallstrum look like a dynamite loan signing.
Yep, We have to move on from Odegaard. Too slow and labored. And he used to delay passing or making a decision just enough so that he can assist or score. But not anymore. He delays too much and he eventually runs out of time. We need to sell him if we have a good offer.
Martinelli on the other hand has played very well.