CONTEXTUALISING SUCCESS IN MODERN FOOTBALL (LONG READ)
ARSENAL ARE ON TRACK
Well, well, well my friends…
The 'Maresca doing a better job than Arteta' crowd have gone awfully quiet since Chelsea started following Arsenal's fixtures sequentially. After matching Arsenal with a draw against the Everton deep-block everyone said was easy, they swiftly followed with a loss to Fulham… then they capped it off yesterday with a delicious loss to Ipswich. You know, the team everyone said we should have scored 4 past earlier in the week. Let me tell you, McKenna didn't roll with an unambitious deep block for Chelsea like he did for Arsenal.
News was pretty decent everywhere else. Spurs dropped two points against Wolves. United were hammered by Newcastle. Unai Emery's Villa dropped points to Brighton.
So what have we learned here? The Premier League is really hard and there are a lot of very good coaches who punch above their weight in 2024.
I also think we just have to be quite honest with ourselves. In the world of algorithmically driven opinions, generally, the dimmest of them rise to the top. We've known that for years, but now we have a generation of people who constantly feel the need to live in extremes at all times.
I was one of the original online moaners back in the day (people called me dim as well), so I am partly to blame for this weird world we live in… and it's not just Arsenal, it seems to be the fanbases at every club. Just type Maresca into the search bar at X.com and read people calling for his head already.
The only club that hasn't had any criticism this season is Liverpool. They're having a great season and because they've been so fantastic, I'm catching our own fans complaining about what they have at Arsenal.
'I wish we'd be more direct'
'We're not exciting'
'Our football is too slow'
We're not Liverpool, so 88 goals in the Premier League in 2024 is now boring. Having the best defence by a margin doesn't matter. We don't have Mo Salah and that's all people can think about. Kind of mad that the football people yearn for is the stuff Liverpool have on offer, but the style that wins trophies is the system Arsenal has adopted - also worth reminding people that when we were playing like Liverpool, the big solve was less emotion, more control.
I can guarantee one thing for sure: If Liverpool go through some bad times and they start to drop off, you'll hear:
'They should have backed the manager in the summer window'
'Always knew there'd be drop-off with the players leaving on free transfers'
'Slot is a fraud, just living off Klopp fumes'
I've even see people I respect say things like 'if Arteta doesn't win it this year, I'd be up for a change.'
This sort of talk is crazy to me. Now we're back in the Promised Land after 15 years of absence, people have forgotten the context of how we landed back here, and they're already dreaming up imaginary scenarios where professional sporting people would be looking at the table, seeing we'd missed out by 2 points last szn, and drawing up plans how they could burn down everything and start again… for 1 extra win.
One extra win last season is Jurrien Timber not blowing out his knee.
One extra win last season is Saka not missing a penalty.
One extra win is seeing out that Liverpool game.
One extra win is not being refereed differently.
Now let's remind people of the context of how we got back to where we are.
3 seasons ago we missed out on top 4 after Conte took Spurs to Champions League with their third top scorer being Own Goal. People said that was our best chance ever of making it. We were done.
The next season, with the second youngest team in the Premier League (the youngest was Southampton, who were relegated), we went on a crazy run of games and led the league into April, against the odds, and fell at the death when Saliba broke his back against Fulham.
Last season, we entered the Champions League. People said we'd never keep up the pace and we'd falter in the league just like Spurs did (Conte, the ultimate winner, was fired). Guess what? We ran City even harder, scored even more goals, and finished the season on 89, taking the league down to the literal last game of the season with the 3rd youngest team in the Premier League.
Now we're in the second year of the Champions League, we're 3rd in the Super League, we're into a semi-final of the League Cup, and we could go 6 points behind Liverpool tomorrow.
… and people want to talk about options for a new manager in the summer?
In what business does a manager that has built back a club to greatness have his future spoken about like this? It's mad. Speaking of business, it’s also worth reminding people that although we have spent some decent change on players, we still have the 5th highest wage bill in the Premier League. This is from Swiss Ramble in March:
Consequently, Arsenal’s £235m wages are the sixth highest in England, far below the top four clubs, who are all well above £300m. Manchester City lead the way with £423m, followed by Liverpool £374m, Chelsea £360m and Manchester United £331m. The Gunners were even overtaken last season by Tottenham £253m.
It might sound strange to say that a club with a wage bill approaching a quarter of a billion pounds is punching above its weight, but Arsenal have really over-performed in the last couple of seasons. For example, they have finished ahead of Manchester United and Chelsea, despite their wages being around £100m lower.
Sure, there might have been a shift since some new deals have come in, but we’ll still be nowhere near the spending of our rivals.
Back to the idea of changing managers to earn an extra three points. It is a nightmare when you have to shift to a new coach. Schedules change, training shifts, the dynamics of the dressing room go off the rails, player’s futures that were tied to one person are placed in doubt, and it is really, really difficult to maintain momentum… and you are taking a massive, massive risk.
Arne Slot is working miracles with a squad that was maybe a little tired of Jurgen Klopp… but it's still early to judge if the miracle has occurred. No one ever expects these mega runs to end, but we've been on the receiving end of the upset, so a bit weird that everyone assumes the good luck will run all season. Who saw the Liverpool collapse last season? Who saw City dropping so far, so fast?
Spurs were in a good groove with Poch. He took them to a Champions League final, he lost… and there was a dip the next season in the Premier League. Instead of sticking with him, Levy listened to his inner-online fan and sacked him. What did he do? 'Signed a proven winner to get Spurs over the line.' What happened? It was a fucking disaster. Then he doubled down on his bad idea by bringing in Antonio Conte, another manager people thought was going to obliterate Arsenal because of his winning mentality and ability to… get it over the line. Again, another failure. Now Spurs are 11th in the League with a manager who hasn't looked directly at a Sky Sports camera in a month. There are no shortcuts these days.
United are the absolute best at thinking that a change in manager will equate to the little bit extra to get them over the line. Jose Mourinho, born winner, failed. OGS, class of 99, failed. Ralf Rangnick gave them some home truthes, failed (was right). EtH was hired because he banned mayo in the changing rooms, failed. Their latest solve is Amorin. How has that panned out?
Amorim has overseen 10 matches across all competitions, recording 4 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses. This start is considered the club's worst in 93 years, comparable to Walter Crickmer's tenure in 1931. In the Premier League, United has suffered five defeats in their last six games, leaving them 14th in the table, closer to the relegation zone than to European qualification spots.
He’s in the media today telling them he has to sell to buy… my question… who do you have to sell?
What would all these clubs in the mud absolutely die for? Their very own Arteta. Bring the fans onside. Build a robust system that gives balance to defence and attack. Drive the standards inside the club to new levels. Be someone that absolutely loves the club and represents the badge. Be a manager that can develop and convince the best young players to give their futures. Someone who can work with people and create a process and a plan for getting to the Promised Land. A manager that can build out a vision of football that has commercial revenues popping without destroying at least the faint notion that football is a real business with actual fundamentals.
You'd think I was propping up a manager who'd just finished 8th in the Premier League and was doing apology tours for having an affair that landed on the frontpage of The Sun. Not someone sitting 2nd one game before the midway point of the season.
Becoming a powerhouse outfit in 2025 and beyond is about creating a great environment for players to develop, building a culture around excellence, then layering elite ideas and top talent over the operation every season. Chelsea spent £1.2b on players and they’re struggling. Shortcuts don't really work in a league as monied as the Prem.
If you do the right things consistently, you'll be competing every season, and eventually you will fall the right side of the variance and win major trophies.
All the best clubs in the world operate that way these days. They have sustainable models that aim to be competitive over 10 years stretches. They make smart strategic decisions, they constantly eke out marginal gains, and they work towards having the best possible team that can dominate when it peaks.
Manchester City are exiting their dominance phase. Their best players are old. The excellence they've been so good at layering in has stuttered. They are about the cycle out execs, staff, players, coaches, and probably their manager. It took them 10 years to get to this point.
Liverpool has been going toe to toe with City over the past 8 years. My prediction of their demise this season was a miss, but I suspect that'll be a miss by one season, maximum two. They'll never have a season this blessed again. They've already lost Trent to Madrid, Salah will likely be next, and I'd imagine VVD will move to Europe or Saudi at the end of the summer as well. You think Liverpool challenge the top 2 next season without those three? Please.
Arsenal's squad based on players used this season is the 7th youngest (Liverpool 6th oldest, City 4th oldest). We were number 2 in the league for goals scored this year (Liverpool #1 but played one more game). We had the best defence by a margin. Arsenal created the second most big chances this season. This team can now manage the delicate balance of managing Champions League and Premier League (2nd favorites). Professional athletes enter their peak at 26 and it lasts until about 31 in Premier League. We have all our big names tied down to deals, we have our manager tied down long-term, we have the best system, and we have the least distractions. Add a #6 like Zubimendi, a rapid winger, and a striker that can offer some magic in tight moments and we're really cooking.
That's the context people. What would your argument be for breaking all of that up? Whatever it is, no one in sport would take you seriously, because it's a deeply unserious proposition given where we're at right now.
Also… it is always amusing that the folk who give up halfway through the season reckon they could find the tightest of marginal gains that'd take us from elite to mega elite. Not being weak-kneed is part of the elite equation. Giving up now is amateur stuff man. Grow up.
Ok, that's me done. Will be back tomorrow for a Brentford preview, but this line from Sky was one I really liked.
"The injury news alone could take 10 minutes here today"
Happy New Year's Eve! Be Safe! x
Hi Pedro,
A happy new year to yourself and the fanbase.
Back to the basics. Boss, no one with the right mindset can, or should, argue against the merits of Arteta. The guy has transformed the club. He has transformed the vibe at the stadium, he has changed the mentality of the players, his tactics are elite. He allowed us to once again to get used to success, and to take it for granted. We are now in a position where top 2/3 is being scorned at. And that sense of entitlement, and the need to not just compete, but to win, is down to Arteta.
BUT, within that need to win, just the desire will not suffice. We will need to analyze, what is leading to us coming up short. And we cannot apportion the reason for that to external factors. We cannot allow our inability to win the big one, be due to the excellence of City / Pool. We have to look internal. And that is what you ignore. You do not address the quite average talent acquisition of this current regime. The Runnarsons, Willliams, Lokongas, Zinchenkos.......and then the lack of will to address the issues. Pool lost Mane and they bought Diaz and Jota. Lost Firmino, and bought Gakpo and Darwin. We lost Xhaka and just our league saw the movement of Bruno, Paquetta, MacAllister, Enzo, Gavernbach.....amongst others. Can we seriously in good consciousness say Merino compares well against these players. Similarly, our squad has been crying out for wide depth. Have we done enough ?
I don't buy the argument that he overworks our players. You see the work load of Salah, Halland, or any other top tier players, and they carry similar workloads. Where, again, we do fuck up, is due to lack to dependable options. Not all players are build the same way. You cannot run TP to the group, like you do with Saka, Martinelli, Gabriel, Havertz. And the current criticism stems from the fact that, its now been three years since we knew of the TP problem. And our wide attacker back up problem. And our lack of striker problem. And the management continues to not address it. And experts like yourself, continue to brush that inadequacy under the carpet. You will mention it fleetingly....."Add a #6 like Zubimendi, a rapid winger, and a striker that can offer some magic in tight moments and we're really cooking....."......but you will not identify it as a core issue. You will not confirm that you, yourself have been saying this very samething for the last 4 transfer windows. That, currently, without a sporting director, we seem to be further away from that particular solve, than closer to it. That we need someone strong / stronger at the helm of the club for strategy and talent acquisition. How many goal keepers have we rotated from the club since Tets. Leno, Martinez, Matt Smith, Runnarson, Ramsdale, Neto, Raya, plus a couple more. Is this normal ? Is this efficient ? CBs and fullbacks like Mari, Cedric, Tomi (their new contracts were Edu / Tets), Kiwior, Chenko. Why is our hit rate so average. How much money are we able to recoup from these assets ?
Till this becomes a conversation within and outside the club, this will not be solved. And unless WE get very lucky, we will not be able to dominate. And your lack of refusal to address that is the only reason why some readers troll you. Otherwise, brother, your content and analysis, its all top notch.
Regards,
Lots of energy for the YouTube crowd Pedro. I don’t think anyone who’s serious wants a managerial change but like you said the footballs boring. We’ve hit those stats because we pumped some shocking teams last season on a run that was over-performance. This season has been dominating, marginal football. And yes it can win you a league, but god it’s a dry watch. It’s what creates the “if we win it I won’t care” attitude. We’ve seen it with city. They’ve been completely dominate for years but ask fans if they like watching them and they’ll say no. City fans don’t care because they’ve got the trophies it’s the nature of the beast. Nobody bowls about the pub charged up because we’ve got the best defensive record, everyone wants a Salah. Nobody growing up wanted to be a centre half, you wanted to be rocky, wright, anelka, Henry. You’re asking a crowd brought up on trophies and Wenger ball to be delighted at 1.86xg. Facts are that Wenger ball didn’t actually win that many big trophies but it was beautiful to watch. Zoomed out, teta’s football is total but he’ll only get the respect if he wins the big trophies. Like atleti, their Fans only love simeone because he’s won, the football is a dreadful watch