Happy July 4th, American friends. I have nothing profound to say about the revolution, though I would recommend a book called Rebels at Sea. It’s about how ‘privateering’ was a big factor in the Revolutionary War, but American historians didn’t give it the credit it deserved because it was basically legalised piracy. In football terms, America was paying cash under the table to super agents to get black edge in the war game. Anyway, good book. Pirates were actually very progressive; they invented health insurance, and if the crew didn’t like the captain, they could elect to have him removed.
Deary me, look what this day of wondrous BBQing and USAing has done to my blogging?
So where are we on the World Cup front?
Cabo Verde. What a stunning performance they put in against Argentina. It was a low-block classic for large chunks of the game, but they had a pop, and put Messi and his boys well and truly on the back foot towards the end of the game. Vozinho, what a keeper, 40 years old, now with 18 million followers on Instagram. Someone is going to sign him for the marketing value!
(I WILL DIE ON THE HILL OF ‘I’D TAKE HIM OVER MESLIER’)
Colombia, sneaking in the back door, with another pretty compelling performance against a listless Ghana. Semenyo looked totally ordinary for the whole tournament, and if we’re honest, Ghana looked very underwhelming. Luis Díaz looks totally world class at the moment and a player who has impressed me in every game so far has been… Daniel Muñoz of Crystal Palace. What a handful of a player. Great power, incredible amounts of desire, and some good finishing.
Australia put on a dogged performance against Egypt. They managed to take the game to penalties. They’ve been really fun to watch. No real superstars to speak of, but an incredible collective energy and under-wallaby mindset that took them close to the last 16. The whole penalty shootout was managed like I was watching a terminally online EAFC player execute a plan. They took off Patrick Beach, their heroic keeper, who’d just made one of the best saves I’d ever seen. They put on Matt Ryan, then they let centre backs take penalties, and an 18-year-old who is playing for Colorado. Matt Ryan didn’t get close to anything. What a mess.
My big question on penalties… would you rather miss a penalty at the World Cup, or be known as a coward who shirked the responsibility? What lives in my memory more from the Champions League final… Big Gabi blazing over… or knowing the winger who fought Enzo Maresca for a penalty didn’t step up?
If I speak…
I have been trying to stay off some of the social platforms this summer because the discourse really has gone off the rails. I don’t mean that people say mean things, I mean we’re not even arguing about the same things these days. People just want to gather in a central space to complain the sky is caving in over a player they didn’t know three weeks ago, and you end up seeing some pretty unhealthy commentary out there. Like, little buddy, there will be other transfers; there's no need to threaten to kill someone because they tried to make you feel better.
I just can’t see myself self-immolating over Jeremy Monga. Don’t get me wrong, I have been banging the drum for Arsenal to be more aggressive on the youth front for a while. Mostly because Man City gives the impression they are more responsible with their transfer spending than they are, because they harvest the best kids at every level and sell them for a pretty penny. City aren’t actually that good at bringing kids through, their real superpower is juicing teenagers with superior knowledge, then using their reputation to sell those players for disgusting fees to clubs who know there’s a big flipping opportunity.
YAN COUTO WHO ARE YOU AND WHY DO YOU COST THAT MUCH.
… because Dortmund can flip him in 3 years’ time.
Monga has about a 10% chance of breaking into City’s team… ever. Why? Because City don’t have time to waste on the development of young players. They are WIN NOW mode all the time. Arteta didn’t meet with Sverre Nypan’s people last year because he didn’t want another prospect. He was in the same mindset. The only players who have a chance in mega teams are those that are truly and most outrageously gifted. If City has an injury problem up front, they’re not leaning into Emile Heskey’s boy; they’re going to unload £200m in the transfer market.
Arsenal stuck to a valuation on Monga that was fair by any standards, and City blitzed through it. The only criticism I can really level at the club here is one that I have no insight into….
Were we quick enough? Did we let negotiations hang in the air? Why didn’t we do this deal when all the leakers were talking about it being done?
Who knows. But the idea that Arsenal are the only team in control of speed is not right. Leicester aren’t stupid. They know Maresca. They knew where he was going. They might have slow-balled negotiations to see if they could get, at the very least, a rival bid. This is a club deep in the sh*t, if you think they’re just waiting there, begging for Arsenal to take their stars, you are wrong.
Other angles that are pure table-banging focus on ruthlessness and just spending the money. Anyone can say, ‘just pay over the odds,’ but those people calling for that usually aren’t talking about their own cash, or their own budget. In your normal life, if you have a valuation on something, like a house, or a car… you hope that you don’t have a partner in your life saying GO 50% HIGHER AND GET THAT DEAL DONE BIG DAAAAWWWWWWG. Imagine exiting a negotiation for a Ford Focus, and your wife is calling you ‘digsting coward’ in the car park because you left empty-handed? Brutal.
When you start negotiating 50% above your valuation, you are in an emotional battle, not a logical one. The Monga transfer fund, I suspect, will be part of a broader budget for academy players, and I can’t imagine it had the wiggle room to go that high for a player who is likely to spend 2-3 seasons out on loan. I don’t know specifically how Arsenal operates, but when a valuation is agreed, there is usually buy-in at board level. If the number goes up by 50%, you have to go back and ask for that additional money, and answer questions as to why you have shifted your view of the budget. Try that when it’s not your money. You look silly.
When you’re competing for players like Monga, you have more competition than you would for a Sesko. Smaller clubs can have a say, even with less money, because a lot of smaller clubs promise earlier introductions to first-team football. Southampton or Dortmund being an example of this. But… when City comes knocking, the money and accouterments of the deal are often so stunning that no one can pass them up.
‘All the Puma training tops one can desire’
Talking of young players, this is one half of the Ecuadorian brothers we have coming to Arsenal.
The real knock to the market right now is that we’re seeing teams like Spurs pay 40% over the odds for good, not great players. How does that impact Arsenal’s spending plans? Morgan Rogers, categorically, is not a £130m player. But looking at the market, why not? We can’t really look to other leagues because, though the prices are low, the chances of success greatly diminish. If you want a bully with big output in the Premier League, £100m is where it starts.
The biggest crime of this World Cup so far has been watching broken Premier League players suffering in the heat. Declan Rice, one of the best players in the world, is ice-packing after every game, and often begging to come off the pitch. He’ll be ready for the Azteca tomorrow. Playing at altitude, through a number of problems, and that English warrior hero mindset is going to badly impact our season because 1) he won’t be ready for the start and 2) he’s going to spend time on the sidelines this season because the weight of the game is going to slap him.
That means we have to find someone who can do the job that he does or close to it… there aren’t many of those.
Bruno would be an exceptional candidate for Arsenal’s midfield for many reasons, but again, here is where the club has to be mature… spending £90m on a player who is 28 is not smart. It goes against the base rules of how most clubs operate. After 29, it’s downhill from a physical perspective, and you can easily see the spend look like a horror show. Arteta can sack all the performance staff he likes; he’ll never escape the truth: he is the guy who trains them and picks them… and he is not good for players’ long-term fitness. I’d rather the club spend £20m more on a midfielder who was 22-24 than invest a horrible sum in a Brazilian at his peak, after playing for a club that has shown no capabilities when asked to play 3 games a week.
Another calming notion… you think Andrea Berta hasn’t spent the last year thinking about all these issues? Don’t be crazy. I’m sure there’s a plan in place, we just don’t see it yet. But, one thing is for sure, there’s a crunch all around the world with regards to player movement. When that blockage gets a little bit of Draino in it, there will be lots of decisions being made in fast succession. Some clubs are going to be making World Cup errors, some will get pulled into spending upwards of £70m on dross, and some will get it right in the dark.
Spending lavishly isn’t a guarantee of success (See Liverpool). The best organised clubs ignore the noise and do what is necessary. Let’s see what a Berta summer looks like with his team managing it.
Ok, that’s me done. See you in the comments. x
P.S. There’s a little America 250 deal for you if you want to subscribe to Le Grove this year. You get all the bonus AOP content, all the Premium writing, the Data Dive presentations, access to the Discord, and early access to the LIVE show we’ll be doing in December. x