Here’s what’s inside:

🔥 Hottest of Takes — Matt goes all in on England winning the World Cup after watching the Brazil game and makes a genuinely compelling cas…

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When you have an unhealthy reliance on transfer news to keep you going, it’s quite hard to accept a Sporting Director who purposefully chums the water with some of the finest tuna you could imagine… the confusion is the goal and confused I am.

We’re going through the phase of the summer where profiles are being drawn up, so we can at least see the shape of the squad Arteta is trying to build heading into next season.

The left, it would appear, is under a quite severe rebuild.

My watch out with the BURN IT ALL mentality is I have to be the annoying person in a meeting who says, ‘can we go back 3 slides.’

1. Arsenal won the Premier League.

2. We were unbeaten in the Champions League in open play.

There’s not a lot that needs changing and sometimes when you change things for the sake of it, there can be unexpected consequences to the feel of the squad setup.

So, let’s be the person who says, ‘no, we can’t look back Tanya, you should have said your piece when you had the chance.’

Trossard and Martinelli managed 7 Premier League goals between them and 7 Champions League goals.

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Here’s what’s inside:

🏀 The Knicks Did It — Matt was in New York for the NBA Finals and draws some very specific parallels with what Arsenal just did. 75 combined years of hurt. Pete has an apolo…

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I threatened that I might hedge my World Cup joy by slightly supporting ‘Murica… and I have to confess, I leaned in hard as soon as I saw an exArsenal Hale End product was in the starting 11. Folarin Balogun.

The Monaco man, who used to play for Arsenal, competed with Eddie for a spot in the starting 11 under Arteta… he failed, went out on loan to Ligue 1, had an incredible time, and Arsenal could not sell him fast enough. We landed quite an extraordinary fee for him considering the lack of a sample size. I thought that might be an Arsenal thing… but he was an exception to the rule that we don’t really sell that well.

The player knew he’d never make it as an England striker, now he’s USA USA USA and he got the nod over Weah, scored a STUNNER, and now he’s part of USMNT history.

Good.

For.

Him.

I’m also happy for Americans. You deserved this. What a day. A lovely price for SpaceX, and a huge win on your World Cup opener.

Can we also talk about the style makeover of Poch? Man looked like he’d been on a 4-day bender three weeks ago, but America wasn’t going to let him out on the big stage without a glow-up. His hair looked good, the Parisian workwear was lovely, his skin looked great, a little bit of jewelry. Divorced dad on steroids. You love to see that sort of thing. Can’t be showing up to a World Cup in a sloppy golf polo shirt.

I don’t want to dwell too heavily on the opener. Mexico were bland on toast and so were South Africa. They really struggled without the vuvuzelas. It was a low-quality match in a very awesome stadium.

Korea vs Czechia was more fun, but it was alarming to see the gaps in the seating for a World Cup game so early. I tried to buy tickets for a game in Kansas. Ecuador vs Curaçao, it was $530 in the bleachers. I don’t mind an average game with one country I can’t pick out on a map… but for that money? I’m not sure, boys and girls; I’m just not sure at all.

Transfer rumours were pretty decent, finally. David Ornstein is in the mood to share… but the name wasn’t quite where we want to be.

Hard to not get a little bit excited about someone who has scored 22 goals and had 29 assists in a single season. Those are crazy numbers. The Belgian League also has quite a good record for talent transferring into the Premier League. Doku and Vincent Kompany spring to mind, but look no further than Trossard. What a player he’s been for Arsenal. This guy looks like he's on performance-enhancing drugs in the comps, a Greek god, sent from FINAL ACTION heaven.

It’s quite hard to get really good data on him, but according to his Opta numbers via Scout Lab, he is a big end-product guy in the Champions League.

Oh, you don’t know what VAEP is?

Developed by researchers Tom Decroos, Lotte Bransen, Jan Van Haaren, and Jesse Davis, it’s one of the more sophisticated action-value models in football analytics.

The core idea

Every action a player takes — a pass, a dribble, a tackle, a shot — changes the probability of two outcomes:

The probability of scoring in the next few actions

The probability of conceding in the next few actions

VAEP quantifies that change. A positive VAEP value means the action increased your team’s scoring probability or decreased your conceding probability. A negative value means the opposite.

Why it matters

Traditional stats (passes completed, tackles won) tell you what happened but not how valuable it was. VAEP tries to answer whether a given action actually moved the needle toward or away from a goal.

How it works technically

It uses machine learning trained on sequences of actions (not just isolated events) to estimate pre- and post-action probabilities, then takes the difference as the action’s value. That sequence-based approach is what distinguishes it from simpler expected threat (xT) models.

Practical use

Clubs and analysts use it to rank players across positions on a common value scale — useful for scouting and recruitment because you can compare a centre-back’s defensive actions against a winger’s attacking contributions in the same currency.

So if your VAEP has you in the 93rd percentile, it means you are dangerous. Like Goose from Top Gun. Go on, I dare you to talk about this at your World Cup-themed craft brew gathering this evening.

‘Check out VAEP on that’

‘Excuse me sir?’

‘Let me explain’

You’ll be the talk of the town and you will literally mog any wannabe football tactico in the room.

Please, let me know how it goes in the comments.

For the more basic among you, here are his shooting numbers as a percentile against Champions League players.

You can imagine that Arteta is going to beat the DEEP SHOTS out of him as soon as he arrives at Colney, but we have to be real about risk-taking; we don’t do enough of it, and there aren’t enough screamers in an Arsenal season. BRING BACK THE SCREAMERS. Say that at your party to show you are one of the people.

The numbers, for a very underpowered team, are quite exceptional. This is kind of where you’d be expecting Arsenal to put money… this isn’t a nailed-on winner of a signing. But the data all points towards a player who can do things in the final third with more force than Martinelli. If you left side is Barcola, a truly elite player, and this guy… I think you have probably given your left side ceiling a kick up the backside.

The Gradient rankings for his important attributes in Champions League are:

• 5th for pressured shot quality

• 10th for open play shooting

• 12th for control

• 10th for Bally Carrying

In short, he’s quite good. I also suspect Arteta might have had a word with Ben Knapper, who I believe had him at Norwich. This is all a little bit Gyokeres with the failed stint in England. But, it also carries the same risks. Battering an average league isn’t always a guarantee. But, I’m happy the pattern seems to be final action KINGS.

Hand of Arsenal is reporting that Arsenal would like a piece of Bradley Barcola… and Nico Paz of Madrid, more famed for a Como run last season.

I’ll be back with some more thoughts on Barcola and Paz tomorrow. We can’t discuss these players without the data. I just won’t do it.

We’ll also have a little chat about Cesc Fabregas at some point. There will be a day without Arteta, so thinking about succession plans is something we’ll have to get on the agenda. Crazy that I haven’t needed to explore new managers in 6 years because we have a great one. But 6 years is a long time, I’m not sure managers these days like to do more than 10 at a single club, and I know PSG came in for Arteta before they landed on Enrique. We have to be real, at some point, there will be a change, and we need to be ready with a list of names.

Short post today, let’s talk more on transfers tomorrow… for now, get yourself some AOP predictions chatter. This one is a free post! x

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Here’s what’s inside:

🔥 The Receipts Are In — category by category, prediction by prediction, the lads go back to what they said in August and face the music. Some brave calls. Some stinkers. One man playing it so safe Jacob compares him to Zubimendi when he’s tired

🏆 The Winner — joint top. Johnny is not happy about the joint bit. Matt is very smug. A tiebreaker format is being discussed for next year involving a quiz question or a fight to the death

💸 Fabio Vieira — The Rhian Brewster of 2026 — news drops mid-pod that stops everyone in their tracks. Pete has been calling him a dark horse for two years. The fee, if real, is a Berta masterclass. The lads lose their minds

🌟 Barcola vs Vinicius Jr — The Big Debate — the pod ends up somewhere unexpected and absolutely brilliant. Champagne vs Prosecco. Data gets pulled up live. The Anelka and Overmars comparisons come out. Jacob makes a pressing argument for one. Pete makes the case for the other

📊 The Hivemind Verdict — three out of five for the listener predictions. Including the big one

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Come on… World Cup Opening Day! I’m all-in now. No more naysaying from me, friends. England are amazing. The rest of the world? Also amazing. Love you guys.

Forget all the drama you see online, you won’t stop people having fun in America. It’s a great country once you stop looking at the catastrophe platforms. The mood is starting to shift, I think American’s like it when Europeans compliment their hamburgers and treetop rope swings. We’re about to have a GOOD time. Also, shout out to the Scottish fan tasting guac for the first time in Chicago.

I don’t care what anyone says, there’s nothing better than watching football played in monstrous American stadiums designed for other sports against the backdrop of the colorful fans doing World Cup things. It’ll be a spectacular event and maybe some of the content flowing out from Euro fans is a reminder to those that live here that it’s a great place with great people.

Am I being a little bit too pro-America here? Does this read like I don’t want to get deported? Maybe. But let me tell you, I do like it here, especially so in the non-mega parts of the country like the Midwest and the South. Kai Havertz is a 4-hour drive from me right now. I want to drive up and stalk him on one of his activation walks, but I know that’d be weird and might get me arrested so I won’t do that… today.

Let’s chat about the World Cup, where do we see it going this year? The predictions markets seem to favour mostly European teams. This is mostly US-based, not sure Portugal would sit high up in a European list.

Gotta say, I’m a little surprised to see the European teams so high up the lists, given the state of some of the pitches over here, and the outrageous heat and humidity.

My view on the World Cup is Spain are the most cohesive team in the tournament. They all play like they’ve been baked in the same football DNA oven. High levels of technical prowess, they move the ball fast, they are used to the heat, and they have a lot of big game players dotted throughout the squad. They also have the best keeper in the world, that goes a long way. Unai Simón usually gets the gloves, but he did only get a half against Peru the other night, before the KING came on. They are my favourites.

My underdog predictions might be England. We’re always kind of laughed about, but you can’t knock the players, the talent, the winnertivity, or the coach we have. No one will want to play us. My main concern is that as an Englishman, I overvalue the players, and their ability to live up to the talent we see them drop at club level. The weather is especially obnoxious for English folk… we play most of our Premier League season in reasonable weather, there’s no humidity in England, and when the summer comes… it’s like a natural disaster for most of the country. How are we going to hold up in heat that actually is a natural disaster for most of the country in the summer months?

Players that could do some bad bitch things?

Viktor Gyokeres is my hope out here. The Swede is a flat-track bully and he did have a pretty good record with Sweden before the non-playoff campaign. Then he came alive with some big goals. Sweden actually has quite a nasty group of well-organised teams, but if they can feed the beast, the beast will feast. A good World Cup might also land him some interest this summer. If Arteta really is going to be ruthless about players this summer, exiting someone whose numbers don’t really reflect the true impact of play might be a brutal place to start.

Teams that could do bad bitch things?

If I were in a Crouch End café talking to someone from the Football Clichés podcast about a World Cup I have no interest in, I’d try and impress them by saying something like:

‘I’m actually quite focused on teams with strong tactical identities geared around modern pressing principles that most international teams don’t have time to coach.’

I’d then follow that up with the real zinger.

‘The subplot to these systems is load management in extreme thermal conditions, high humidity amplifying perceived exertion and slowing recovery, while non-FIFA-standard pitches with excessive give increase ground reaction forces and soft tissue stress with every stride. Don’t even get me started on physiological stressors related to altitude.’

People at the back table munching pistachio croissants applauding the nuanced approach to my viewing tastes. Doesn’t get better than that, does it?

Teams that fit into these categories are Japan, Austria (Rangnick), and Uruguay (Bielsa). There’s always a team in the World Cup that doesn’t boast individuals, but just has a really good plan, and a great camp that sends them stratospheric.

Star power usually wins out, though, doesn’t it? France are going to be quite hard to beat. But we’ll see… too many stars can often be as bad as too few.

The thing I’m both hoping for and dreading is a good USMNT performance. Their team has not exactly bonded with America and their preparation over the last year has been quite poor. But… I did a podcast with a USMNT player who played in the World Cup in 1994. They didn’t have a pro league back then. The players spent 18 months in a camp in the build-up to the tournament to get good… then they put on a monster show in 1994, captured the hearts of a nation, and narrowly lost to Brazil.

That’s what we need over here. The players can become heroes. If they do, this place will be rocking for the next 6 weeks. So basically, I need a disaster class from Paraguay tomorrow, and I need to see players like Pulisic step up on the biggest stage.

Final note, no injuries please. If Saka ain’t right, don’t start him. I need fresh talent returning to England for a glorious pre-season.

Ok, that’s me done, have a great World Cup! See you in the comments. x

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P.S. We have a predictions revisit podcast tomorrow. Going out early to the members. Apparently, I done f*cked up again. Get your members’ episode right now.

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Here’s what’s inside:

🔥 Hottest of Takes — Jacob wants a proper star and has a theory about why Arsenal’s style has felt limited that cuts right to the player profile. Johnny goes full artist vs infantry: we’ve got an incredible squad of foot soldiers, now it’s time for some paintbrushes

🎯 Kroupi — The Deep Dive — the shooting stats, the age, the profile. Johnny pulls up the numbers live and makes the case for why this is the kind of signing Berta was hired to make

🌟 Vinicius Jr — Don’t Rule It Out — Johnny goes there. The stats are green across the board. The Real Madrid situation isn’t as settled as people think. Mourinho’s relationship with his players is a factor. And Arsenal’s Brazilian core might just be the unexpected trump card in this conversation

💚 Why Arsenal Are Now In The Room — a genuinely compelling argument for why the best players in the world now look at Arsenal differently. Barcelona used to take our players every summer. The tables have turned

🗓️ Coming Friday — The Predictions Roundup — receipts are being gathered. Jacob doesn’t remember any of his predictions. Johnny does. This is going to be fun

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Here’s what’s inside:

🔥 Hottest of Takes — Jacob drops something that will genuinely upset people: a feeling about Calafiori and a name that could make it happen. Pete’s take is seismic — a complete attacking overhaul is coming this summer, and he thinks nobody’s position is truly safe. I…

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I wanted a summer of unhinged transfer rumours every damn day, and all I have is Germans touring the United States like they’ve never left their house, English people pretending they’ve never seen a milkshake or an American cheeseburger, and Arsenal signing galactico doctors who can sprint to an Olympic level.

This is like booking a really bad all-inclusive.

Pedro yelled from his stained satin bedsheets, ‘why are there flies in my transfer soup?’

This is a disgrazia all round and I can’t see it getting any better with the World Cup opener happening literally tomorrow.

But… that doesn’t mean this isn’t going to be a blog with some delicious analysis of what’s going on at Arsenal, plus, my views on World Cup ‘MURICA! Sign up for a summer of good writing.

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In somewhat of a shock, the first big exit at the club was… Dr Zafar Iqbal, the head of medical services.

There’s not a lot of detail around the story, but the club clearly worked closely with the media to ensure the news dropped publicly on their terms very close to the moment he was moved on.

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Do you ever wonder what the players think of the system? Have you ever thought, I wonder if someone as swanky as William Saliba detests that the artistry he’s asked to partake in is a little… brutalist. Well, Big Bill got into the details today with L’Équipe.

“The first season I arrived, we were playing incredible football. That was the season where I said we deserved the title. We finished second, and as usual, people made fun of us. The second season too, we were playing good football, and finished second. People made fun of us, ‘Bottle, bottle’. Last season too, we were playing well, even if we weren’t playing as well as the first two seasons, we still finished second. This season, even if I don’t agree with everything they say, as if there was only one team that was playing. Well, we’re playing football, except it’s true that sometimes we score a lot more from set-pieces. Now, in the Premier League, you see everyone does long throws, focuses on corners, it’s not just us.”

The inquisition had we not won the league would have been immensely boring and thorough this summer, so thank the lord we are Champions. But the deeper point here that everyone misses is the whole league is at it… everyone is trying to work the same margins we’re working… but we’re the best. No one takes corners like Declan and Saka. No one finishes them off like the whole Arsenal team. No team anywhere in the world innovates around the ref trends and rule changes.

It’s quite something.

The aesthetics crowd this season were amongst some of the most boring to have ever done it. We’re top of the league and people are sending me text messages asking if we can continue with the manager if we drop down to second. Are we winning? Yes. Then STFU, I’m trying to enjoy it. If it’s good enough for Saliba, who could have his pick of any club on the planet, then it can be good enough for all of us.

I try not to talk too much about the World Cup, but I am getting the bug, especially when I see Arsenal players doing well, or I spy content of Lamine Yamal in Chattanooga, Tennessee. Gets me right in the mood. I’ve seen Trossard pop a 30-yard screamer into the top corner, Martin Odegaard has been on the score sheet, and King Kai looked a boss for Germany… 40 g&a in 56 games for them. In the Premier League, he has 17 non-penalty goals and 10 assists in 35. I mean, if we were signing a player like that, we’d be very excited. Oh, Tuchel named Declan the vice-captain of the England football team. Big news!

Transfer gossip goes to bed for the weekend. I’m quite interested to see how many clubs do big deals before the World Cup and how many players push to see what the interest looks like after it.

Matheus Fernandes is a player who looks set to move this summer. West Ham have been relegated, one of their directors has been exited and Panorama’d (BBC version of 60 Minutes before it was taken over), and they’ll need some cash in the business. Arsenal have registered interest according to a few big names, but it does seem like the fee they’re expecting is going to be well beyond what most clubs will want to spend on him. £100m? Crazy. Even £80m would be a desperate move that even Chelsea might pass on.

Virgil was asked by a reporter who was the best Dutch player in the Premier League this season; he answered: Jurrien. Good man. I like that. Please stay at Liverpool one more year and be more disastrous.

All the rumblings doing the rounds at the moment seem to be that Mikel Arteta is going to look towards the Premier League for upgrades this summer and I’ve got to say that makes me happy. It’s not as sexy as Europe, but we need to be de-risking our signings. Morgan Gibbs-White and Morgan Rogers would be good additions to the squad this summer. Tonali and Livramento will no doubt be on the list. Though I will say, it’s hard to picture many Premier League players giving us the edge in our forward positions. Do we need more brute force safebreakers? Or do we need some of those lock-picking magicians?

Bradley Barcola and Julián Álvarez feel closer to the type of players we’re missing right now. Elite technicians, fast on the ball, and in the mind. Difference makers of the very highest calibre. Both players are deep-block breakers, they offer us extra layers of creativity, and they’re light on their feet which is good for free kicks around the area.

For Álvarez, the question is whether Barcelona have the money…

For Barcola, it’s a question of whether he’s robust enough for an Arteta system…

There is also the reality of the price. It’ll be fairly steep for Álvarez. The 26-year-old is commanding a fee of £108m. This is the age Liverpool signed Mo Salah. Another player who had a stint in England, moved, then boomeranged back. Bradley Barcola won’t cost that much money if we’re going by the ‘they don’t want him so you can’t command a big fee’ narrative that Arsenal has always faced when trying to offload decent players. His transfer value is €70m, he’s 23 years old, so I wouldn’t expect anything too discounted there.

We also have to look at the viability of our exits. I know, I know, you all hate it when I put values on players that are backed with chronic amounts of hopium, but it’s my blog and I’ll propagandise prices if I want to.

Player Value

Calafiori £80m

Zubi £70m

Martinelli £65m

Viktor £60m

Kai £60m

Ethan Nwaneri £60m

Madueke £30m

Fabio £15m

Trossard £20m

Norgaard £5m

Gabi Jesus £5m

Kepa £5m

Reiss £0.5m

Total £475.5m

Ok, that might be aggressive, but we can’t be the only club in history that can’t sell its players after winning a title. Arsenal players should have a premium now, there are almost no wasters, and they can all do the work.

That’s me done. Check out the latest members podcast and get signed up for the very good deals for the Premium writing this week.

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Here’s what’s inside:

🔥 Hottest of Takes — Matt’s take is about a player who barely featured in the final stretch of the season who could be absolutely unplayable by August. Pete’s take involves a South American who he thinks is going to be an Arsenal player before the window closes — and he’s going all in

💛 Julian Alvarez — Done Deal? — Pete has the data, the logic, and the insider feel. Berta knows the seller. Barcelona almost certainly don’t have the money. Arsenal do. And there’s a very specific role Pete can see him playing that nobody’s been talking about

🏥 The World Cup as a Pre-Season — Matt makes the case that some of Arsenal’s most important players will come back from the tournament sharper than anyone expects. The player he names at the centre of this theory is a brilliant shout

👶 Max Dowman — The Fabregas Moment — Tim Stillman planted the seed, Matt waters it. If World Cup absences open the door at the start of the season and Dowman walks through it, everything changes. Pete maps out exactly how that could happen

⚙️ Zubimendi — Put Some Respect On His Name — Pete and Matt push back on the discourse. Champions League final squad. Seamless Partey replacement. Matt makes the case that Arteta is going to need two Champions League-level players in every position next season, and Zubimendi is one of them

Members only — thank you for being part of the AOP family.

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Here’s what’s inside:

🔥 Hottest of Takes — Matt’s World Cup dark horse will raise eyebrows and he’s got the data to back it up. Pete goes with a Scandinavian option featuring two of Arsenal’s own and reasons why the heat might be their only enemy

💸 Fabio Vieira — The Cautionary Tale — rumours of a move for very modest money. Pete and Matt on what happens to a player’s value when a big club doesn’t work out, and why Berta will be pushing hard for more than he’s likely to get

🎯 Barcola vs Morgan Rogers — The Debate Continues — Pete drops a touch statistic on Rogers that will make you wince. Matt flip-flops live on air and ends up landing somewhere Pete didn’t expect. The Gareth Bale comparison gets floated

⚽ Morgan Gibbs-White — The Dark Horse Signing — Pete makes the case with numbers and it’s harder to dismiss than you’d think. Proven in the Premier League, high floor, goal threat, doesn’t get injured. Matt is almost convinced before Barcola pulls him back

🌍 World Cup Incoming — England vs Croatia is ten days away. Neither of them knows this until they Google it live. Neither of them particularly cares. They’ll be mainlining transfers regardless

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The powers that be have upgraded my technology. I’m convinced the only way you can truly feel the impact of progress is to not change your tools in 5-year increments. I feel like a Roman who’s been put in a Tesla. Endless possibilities at speed. I think… I could take over the world? But before I become your overlord, let’s get into what the world is talking about right now.

America. No, Americans. We gotta have a word about them. The build-up to the World Cup has been unsexy to say the least. High prices, micro-scandals all over the place, and a populace that just hasn’t really dialed in because the USMNT hasn’t exactly endeared itself to the gen pop.

But… the thing I feared most happened yesterday against Germany, a little moment that they could rally around. Some hope. America only really cares about sports they’re the best in, so when someone does something that looks like it’s the best, you’d best believe you’re going to awaken some of the worst casuals in world sport. I’m talking about the guys who go to the Waste Management Phoenix Open, the Buffalo Bills fans who jump through tables, the folk USAing at ice skating… the whole of Philly, and all of Boston’s worst.

The world is not ready for what is going to happen, they really aren’t.

You can’t deny them their moment… that goal, without doubt, is one of the best we’ve seen this year. But think about the geopolitical impact? Think of the power the American people are going to draw on here. Imagine the sound of USA USA USA dominating the world for the exact amount of time it’ll take them to get out of the group stages and get defeated in the round of 32.

America is the force it is in the world because of the insane optimism and belief in their greatness… and they’re about to show you how that translates into sport, in their backyard. How do you think that’s going to go for me? It took one draw against England in the last World Cup for my American brothers and sisters to start bringing up the Revolutionary War.

Antonee Robinson has ruined my week in a way I didn’t think was technically possible (literally, I didn’t think he had the capabilities to do something like that).

So let’s talk about Arsenal to numb the pain.

One of the drums I’ve been banging over the past 5 years is the Manchester City model for academy. They basically purchase best-in-class players at every age group through whatever means necessary, and they do this for three reasons.

1. The best young players in the world get trained in Pep ideals (makes them attractive).

2. The ones that serve a purpose at club level are elevated into the first team and they make a difference (O’Reilly).

3. Those that fail are sold off and generate £200m every 5 years in transfer fees which keeps the ‘net spend’ number down when they do their finances (Oscar Bobb and Emmanuel Frimpong).

Anyone can spend a lot of money, but what Man City have done better than anyone else is hire strategists who spend the cash in the most optimum way so they can dominate every specialism in the game.

Academy kids, no one can outspend them.

16-22, no one can outspend them.

23-27, no one can outspend them.

27+, they don’t really do it.

Arsenal have developed the way they coach and bring young players through, but it’s largely been organic, and we’ve done a terrible job harvesting kids for cash, and our loan approach has been diabolical.

Berta has exited all the people that built a system that could organically create a lot of elite talent, and he’s taken charge. Now he’s turbo-charging the types of names we bring to the club.

Edwin and Holger Quintero are our Ecuadorian twins, and they’re getting rave reviews. Max Dowman, the treasure of teenage football, is going to be the best player in the world. Marli Salmon will be back-up right back this season. Irish 17-year-old Victor Ozhianvuna was one of the early signings moving to a more Man City model.

Now the club are starting to move on bigger targets.

Jeremy Monga, a 16-year-old left winger, is a big move Arsenal are looking to do with Leicester.

He played 1,000 minutes for Leicester, who were relegated to League One. That is a crazy number of minutes. 2 assists and 1 goal doesn’t read like a lot on paper, but it’s really, really good. Arsenal are moving on a player who has difference maker written all over him, and when you think of Max on the right, it really does feel like the club are moving on players who are different to the monsters we’ve been looking at this season. Monga is more Cherki than Martinelli.

Arsenal have also been linked with another super teenager, Emmanuel Mbemba, PSG U19 captain, a left back.

The story is that he’ll be given the loan treatment, like Willy Saliba, then given a path into the first team that he apparently won’t get at PSG.

Neither of these moves guarantee you’ll have a player worth anything at the end. Teenagers might have all the raw ingredients to be world class, but the mental side of the game plays a huge role. Are you telling me if Emile had the same attitude as Saka he wouldn’t still be at Arsenal? Of course you aren’t. What this approach does is ensure that you’re investing coaching hours in players who are more likely to break into the first team, and if they don’t, they’re more likely to land a fee for the club.

Under the old model, we’d have one or two stars, and then leave the rest of the academy with filler players who could barely sustain a professional career. The approach now will likely be to move to a scenario where you’re getting 1 or 2 players who could compete for a squad place, with 4-6 who could command a fee.

Look at the insanity of the sales Man City dropped last season. They do this on the DL and that’s why they don’t get as much scrutiny for their net spend. But how do they get to those players? Because they are one of the top spenders to get those names to the club when they are nobodies. Sverre Nypan last year, a player Arteta didn’t even meet because he didn’t want him in the squad, was hoovered up by Man City for big money, and shipped out. This is a player Arsenal thought could compete with Odegaard one day. Now he’s part of the teenage farm at Man City. If he makes it, great. If he doesn’t, say hello to a £30m move to Southampton in 3 years.

We need to be that club, that’s why I really like these moves.

Summer sales seem to be the most dominant conversation right now. When I shortened the word dominant, did it come across sexual? I’m sorry. Didn’t mean to ruin your day that way.

Back to it…

Martinelli left an end-of-season tweet that kind of felt like a goodbye. I’m ok with it. He’s been here 7 years. He’s given his all to the cause. A player Klopp called “talent of the century” might be ready for the next move. The only thing I need to make sure of is that we land a good fee. This is a player who has won the Premier League, he starts for Brazil, he had 18 G&A this season… I am not going to allow him to move to Bayern for £45m. This is a £65m player, especially after we saw Anthony Gordon move to Barca for €80m. I want that Rhian Brewster premium. Our players are winners, they work like dogs, they’re better tactically drilled than most… it’s time for the big fees.

The scariest exit of the summer will potentially be Zubimendi. He played all the Premier League games last season and… we won the Premier League. I can’t hear that he’s not at the level. It’s the worst kind of Arsenal discourse. He’s a monster. Did he get tired? Sure. But do we want him in the squad? Yes we do.

But… there are headwinds. Myles is… kind of the guy now. 18 years old, more mature, and more suited to playing next to a bunch of beasts like Declan. Myles is a little more technical, a little more ambitious in his passing, and a touch more saucy. Is a player who starts for Spain going to accept being Norgaard next season? I don’t know. Especially not if he’s homesick for Spain… with those Madrid players chirping in his ears, this might be the shock of the summer for Arsenal.

An interesting incoming transfer is that of Morgan Gibbs-White. The English attacking midfielder is a funny old player. Clearly very talented like Morgan Rogers, but you can’t quite put your finger on it. Just one of those guys that can make the difference if he’s in the mood. Predominantly an attacking midfielder, he was responsible for 18 goals and 7 assists for a Forest side that went through 3 managers this season. That is… incredible.

The numbers above are overall grades. But they are baked against the size of the sample set. Your Gradient shooting number only goes high if you take a lot of shots. You can’t score one worldie from one shot and get a 75. It’s kind of like percentiles, but the people you’re graded against have to be people that shoot a lot. Make sense? Good.

Morgan Gibbs-White is kind of good at everything you want in an attacking midfielder. He’s more attack-focused than defensively. Ranked, in totality, against the 35 players who play the same role as him, he’s 9th in the league playing for Forest.

Dig into the data, he’s ranked 7th in the attacking midfielder category for pressured shot quality — a good number for a deep-block team like Arsenal. He’s 5th in the league for open play shooting. 14th for touch… but a lot higher than Morgan Rogers for the same metric (133rd of 136 AMs and CMs).

If the role we’re trying to fill here is someone who can break defences and do a lot of things really well, with power, pace, and aggression… then I can see why MGW is in the mixer. Could be an exciting move. Can’t write him off just because Spurs missed out on him, he’s a great player in his prime.

Can’t imagine the wildest owner in the Premier League is going to let him go for anything lower than £75m, but we’ll see!

Ok, that’s mostly all I have. You come back tomorrow, you hear? x

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Here’s what’s inside:

🔥 Hottest of Takes — Jacob is not sold on Morgan Rogers and has receipts from Villa fan forums to back it up. Pete’s take is about Kepa: the slander has to stop, and he makes the case that Arsenal still have the best backup goalkeeper in the league by some distance

⚽ Do We Sell A Striker? — Pete floats the idea early and Jacob can barely believe it. But the logic is hard to argue with. If you spend big on Alvarez or Kruppi, something has to give. The Atlético Madrid connection comes back up and one name feels very familiar

🏟️ Real Madrid In Crisis — Florentino Pérez is doing long, Trumpian press conferences about the deep state. A 37-year-old wants the presidency. Mourinho is in. And Calafiori’s name keeps coming up in ways that make Pete very nervous

😤 Spurs’ Rebuild — De Zerbi is in, they’ve signed Sánchez from Bournemouth, and they’re going after Van de Ven’s defensive partner from Brighton. Pete and Jacob give it three windows before Spurs are anyone’s problem

🔴 Man United — Cause For Concern? — Carrick is in. They’ve signed a midfielder from Atalanta who Pete immediately compares to Ugarte. Jacob is not worried. Bruno Fernandes to Mourinho’s Madrid gets floated

💰 The Arteta Contract — How Big? — he’s already one of the highest paid managers on the planet. Jacob thinks it could go significantly higher. Pete makes the case for why that number is completely worth it

Members only — thank you for being part of the AOP family. See you next Friday.

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Here’s what’s inside:

🔥 Hottest of Takes — Jacob drops a cold shower on the most talked-about transfer target of the summer and makes the case for someone else entirely. Pete pumps the brakes on the whole conversation and reminds everyone what this team just actually did

🌊 Bradley Barcola — Weapon of Mass Destruction — PSG are moving him on. Pete makes the full-throated case for why he’s the missing piece on that left-hand side. Jacob is very much on board

🤔 Do We Actually Have A Left Side Problem? — Martinelli was brilliant in Europe. Trossard is beloved. So why is everyone in such a rush to sell them? Pete and Jacob dig into whether the problem is as bad as the discourse suggests

🏭 The Academy Pipeline — six players aged 16-17 banging on the door. Jacob makes the case that signing certain types of players is now a waste of money when you’ve got what’s coming through. He uses Madüeke as the example and does not hold back

😂 Don’t Let The Clowns Get You Down — Jacob is now officially part of the TalkSport network and has some thoughts on how to protect your Arsenal joy. His description of the TalkSport presenting style is one of the lines of the summer

🌍 The World Cup — Jacob is faking his enthusiasm. Pete can tell. They get it out the way quickly

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Oh thank you, that’s so kind of you to say, happy transfer window season to one and all!

You know nothing gets my gears grinding harder than transfer season. It’s a time of great hope, of renewal, a dreamy haze of research, YouTube scouting, and largely disappointment.

… but this summer, we’re a serious club, with big ambitions, and an ownership group moving beyond the war chest stories of the 2010s right to the WE ARE GOING BIG phase of global domination.

We’ll see how things shake out over the next few months, but there are a few things we must remember about how Andrea Berta rocks so we can all be singing from the same page.

1. Optionality

The big pivot from the old guard to the new is that Andrea Berta doesn’t believe in the idea that you’re better off not spending than missing your target. His view is that you should have multiple targets on the go at the same time and you should use that variation to keep clubs guessing on fees. Some would say he does this to get the best price, but I would argue that outside Mosquera last summer, we largely paid the valuation or we overpaid. I think he does this to keep options open while the club assesses things like desire and agents. But probably the biggest advantage of having multiple players on the go is that if Madrid or United come steaming in, you have other places to put your cash. He also recognized that squad depth was more important than outright quality and that mindset tipped us over the line in the Premier League because the mass injury issues we had all season didn’t hurt us like it had done in the past.

2. Opportunism

I think there will likely be a part of the summer that is baked, but some of the summer will remain unplanned so the club can assess exciting options that occur when new managers, going into big clubs, make an assessment of who they want to keep and who they want to bin. José Mourinho at Madrid will most certainly make a splash by decapitating one or two stars. Iraola might bin some of last summer’s big moves to raise capital… like Alex Isak. You just don’t know. But Eberechi Eze was a last-minute trolley dash last year and I suspect being open to phone calls from the big agents, and making decisive moves, is why the big super agents like Berta.

3. New Media

Andrea Berta is probably the most progressive innovator in new media I’ve seen, globally. The Hand of Arsenal account has been a very shrewd way of Arsenal bypassing media spin and headline generators. Angsty fans are kept in the loop with regards to the targets, the details of the deals, and how things are progressing. I’ve never seen anything like it, but it prevents fans from being dragged into the world of random fake ITK accounts, and it gives clarity to what we’re looking at and how we’re moving.

4. Clarity of the rebuild

We also kind of know the shape of the summer already. David Ornstein and Miguel Delaney, the best informed journalists, have been signaling how the squad rebuild will be shaped.

We know there will be an attacking midfielder of sorts and Morgan Rogers is setting the tone for what that’ll look like. An all-action ball-carrying powerhouse with rich output.

We’ll be looking at some sort of forward who can play as a second striker or on the wings. That’ll look like an Álvarez or a Junior Kroupi. Two players that, according to Delaney, are attracting big interest from PSG this summer.

We know that the right back position is likely open, though I have heard there’s a chance Ben White stays on, particularly with that knee injury, and some of the very good performances at the tail end of the season.

We know there’s a strong likelihood that we’ll need to look at a new 8 and a 6.

5. Sales drive spaces

Andrea Berta has been known for finding gems, but he’s also been known for doing very good business on exits. Arsenal have been notoriously weak on this front, but at some point, you have to imagine that narrative changes because we’re, you know, Champions of England with the best coach in the world. These squad players took us all the way this season, how can there be a market for Anthony Gordon, but not Martinelli?

Players to keep an eye on this summer are the whole of the left side of midfield. Martin Odegaard, who had a strained relationship with Arteta at phases of this season. Martin Zubimendi who fell out of favour, but also, a man we know suffers with homesickness. Then there are other players who might just find suitors you didn’t expect. If Madrid come in with a huge number for injury-prone Calafiori, would the club opt to find someone more robust?

There are also big questions to be asked of our forward line. Kai has struggled with injuries, Gabi Jesus doesn’t have it anymore, and Viktor Gyokeres, despite a good final month of the season, trails in so many of the major numbers an Arsenal striker should be at the top of, it’s quite painful. How quickly does the new regime recognise errors in some of the moves we made last year? How ruthless will they actually be? Noting that the only signing of last summer that made the Champions League final starting 11 was Mosquera, who was in for an injured Jurrien Timber.

These are the 4 grounding principles I’m looking at this summer. Should be an interesting one. We have to navigate a hectic one because the World Cup will be starting very soon and that’ll block a lot of the best players from talking. Will Berta get deals done fast or will we fight with everyone at the back end of the tournament?

Plenty to think about. But, while you’re mulling those items — Jacob managed to snag the mighty Tim Stillman, one of the best thinkers on Arsenal for 20 odd years, for an excellent episode of The Dugout that is free for your ears right now. Check it out ad free now! x

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Here’s what’s inside:

🔥 Hottest of Takes — Tim opens with a claim that will provoke debate: Myles Lewis-Skelly starts in central midfield next season. Permanently. And Zubimendi quietly finds himself in a Jorginho role. Jacob asks whether we might be watching a repeat of Ben White at right back — accidental permanence

💸 The Transfer Market Is Broken — Jacob’s hot take: there are no players worth a hundred million pounds, which means every player costs a hundred million pounds. Tim has a lot of sympathy for what Berta is trying to do this summer and explains why in a way that makes you feel slightly better about everything

⚽ Gyökeres — The Honest Assessment — Tim fell on Pete’s side. And then Gyökeres just quietly got on with it. No side changing the outcome of the argument, but undeniably no title without him. Where does he fit next year?

🌟 Max Dowman — The Fabregas Comparison — Tim goes there. Carefully. Jacob talks about a World Cup preseason and what happened to a certain Spanish teenager in the summer of 2004

🔴 What Does Arsenal Actually Need This Summer? — the left wing spot, the striker question, and why Tim thinks Arteta might have to sacrifice one of his principles to find the attacker that changes everything

🌱 Calafiori — Keep Him — Tim’s horse-without-a-jockey analogy will become the definitive description of watching Calafiori run at full pelt down the right wing having started at left back. The lads agree: don’t sell this man

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Here’s what’s inside:

🏆 Player of the Year — Timber wins it for the second year running. Johnny makes the case that the most consistent player at Arsenal this season …

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Clawing my way back to normality after all the madness we’ve partaken in over the past few weeks.

What have I learned?

I will go to the next Champions League final. I hemmed and hawed over it. I put family over football. I shuddered over the immense cost of it all.

I let myself down. I soiled my reputation. I’ll never do it again. Very rarely do I feel jealousy as an emotion, but all my friends, 9 pints deep before breakfast, sharing their pictures… it got me bad. I’m booking my Madrid tickets tomorrow.

Then there was the game. We’ve all spent too much time this season worrying about outcomes vs enjoying the things that happen before them. The Champions League final was one of the first games I tried to engage with without worrying about the final score. It was a privilege to be at the top of the game, it was an outrageous feeling to know it was Arsenal battling it out with PSG, and the feeling of being 1-0 up for that amount of time was spectacular.

This is the way to enjoy football. The pressure is now firmly off with regards to all the bullsh*t around Arsenal being bottle jobs. Moving forward, it’s all about enjoying this little moment in time where Arsenal might be a force in English football.

There’s a great piece doing the rounds of TalkSport speaking to an Arsenal fan who basically called out the Simon Jordan show, but more broadly, TalkSport for being a primary cause of spoiling the Arsenal experience this season. Raging at a channel designed to have you raging is kind of pointless.

People have accused this site of rage-baiting. I write Le Grove from the perspective of my real opinion because in polite society, the given is that you’ll offer a balanced perspective… but honestly, there’s nothing more boring than looking at something from every angle, especially if you only believe in one of them. When you’re with your friends, you are unfiltered, and that’s why it’s more fun being with your friends than giving an opinion at an office Lunch and Learn. So raging about a sports radio channel for dialing up the rhetoric around the most popular club in the most affluent part of London is going to fall on deaf ears… people like to hear big opinions; we can’t be angry. TalkSport have monetized that.

But… the deeper point here is this… why do we fall for it if it’s making us ill?

Yes, I’m saying ill here. It is a sickness if you look at and listen to things that make you fall out of love with what you love. You are abusing yourself for the wrong sort of dopamine hits. This is what social media does to the body. You look at loads of clips, carefully crafted for your caveman brain, and you walk away saying… is London burning? Are my organic berries stewed in cancer bleach? Are you supposed to say boooooosh after every sentence when you go back to Essex?

But more to the point…

Should I be angry that Arteta doesn’t play the exact brand of football I want?

Are we undeserving Champions?

Is leaving your technical area actually a capital crime?

Are Arsenal fans really annoying and should it be a priority to make sure Chelsea fans like me?

Why isn’t it illegal to make tifos?

Is it cheating if you don’t get a red card?

Is win-at-all-costs mentality not elite when it’s Arteta doing it?

Is it barbaric to scrum in the penalty box?

Should we stop scoring goals from setpieces because we are the best at them?

Should I be concerned that Northern teams don’t like it up them?

Is it actually good for football that plucky nations state-run clubs win the biggest trophies?

Was Laura Woods unprofessional for being the only sports broadcaster in history to share that she favored a club?

Should partisan Arsenal fans be banned from telly?

Is the word ‘project’ an affront to the native Brits?

This list goes on and on.

But it’s not TalkSport’s fault. They are there to engage you, warp your mind, make you join the negative army of Arsenal haters… and they succeeded for chunks of the season.

‘We’ve got to ask questions of Arteta because I can’t handle the football’ after the Wolves game. Booing in the stadium. We can all celebrate how amazing things were in the week we won the Premier League, but don’t forget some of the dark times… and that they were induced by the most terminally online fan base mainlining all the bad commentary about their own team.

You don’t need to listen to it. There are 400 Arsenal podcasts. 200 places to read about Arsenal. You can insulate yourself by unfollowing clippers on short-form platforms that don’t say nice things about your club.

Build up walls. Stop searching out things to argue about. Or train yourself to be better about what the algorithm and the shapers are trying to do to you.

Arsenal just won the Premier League to the backdrop of one of the worst media propaganda campaigns of all time. It’s time to break the habit and realise that you are being taken for a ride. Your emotions are being choked to make you doubt what you are seeing. It just simply can’t continue this way. You are giving your joy away in an era where things really are pretty amazing.

Antonio Conte, one of the biggest sufferball merchants of all time… media darling.

José Mourinho, didn’t want the ball, sufferball king, dark arts monster, savage man… media darling.

Pep G, one of the most overpowered managers in football history… media darling.

Eddie Howe, media darling. Big Ange, media darling.

Arteta, who doesn’t say offensive things, answers questions with depth, gives soundbites, rarely complains, built the club back to greatness the hard way… has media literally saying they want to punch him.

Says it all.

Time to shake yourself down. You saw all the people dancing on the streets. We are undeniably massive. Arsenal are champions. We just made a Champions League final and went unbeaten in open play. There is no doubt, we are one of the best teams on the planet and the club is about to invest even more in taking us to the next level.

This makes me feel alive, and I am not going to let platforms designed to enrage me move the needle.

Propagandise yourself, live the good life, have a great summer. x

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