The Vini Jnr story, despite Gary Cotterill’s insistence, appears to be very much on the cards…

It’s hard to pinpoint a central point of truth right now — and I suspect that’s the same for Arsenal folk who are at the centre of the saga.

Some things to note that give me hope that something could happen…

The big advantage Arsenal have with regards to finances is that we can offer Vini Jnr 100% of his image rights. A player of his pedigree would be doing much better if his agency, Roc Nation, could put more of those deals into his pocket.

Another thing no one wants to talk about is that Arsenal are probably a bigger club right now from a cultural perspective. New Yorkers won’t spill out onto the streets for yet another Real Madrid formality trophy. Sure, they are a spectacle, but they’re the bell of the ball in a league that is struggling badly for eyeballs. The Premier League has 3.2 billion viewers, to their 600 million. Why do I mention this? Commercial deals are more potent if you are playing in a league that is popular in markets that have people with bigger wallets. I’ve been in America for 10 years, I’ve rarely met an avid Real Madrid fan. I’ve never seen a Madrid pub. They are just a brand that exists in the ether because of their history… for current relevancy? Arsenal are the rocketship.

Vini is also not the big man at Madrid and he never will be. There’s always something new on the block. The Spanish side are actively pursuing Olise and Haaland for next season. They will need capital to do that. If they give Vini what he wants, they’ll have to give Jude the same; that’ll leave them very little room to spend on next season’s Galácticos. They’ve spent heavily already this summer without many exits to speak of… one would imagine, at some point, someone is going to have to go. Especially as Madrid have taken the free transfer route more often than not to get big players in the door, with a stadium debt of €1.1 billion to service. If they want to keep adding big names, they have to pay attention to growing wages… giving Vini all that he wants might be an impediment to bigger deals next year.

If Vini moves to Arsenal, he will be the face of the organisation. They will make him king. He will be the star on every poster, billboard, and TV commercial. He’ll be forever cemented in our history as the guy who made us a Champions League contending team. That will come with ego perks he’ll never get at Madrid and I suspect that deep down, he knows that, and so do his people.

There’s also the close ties Ben Winston has with Roc Nation, the Vini Jnr agency, through his work on the Grammys and other such projects over the years. I’m not saying that’s a dealmaker, but football is a small community, and having someone trusted at the club your client is interested in going to, at that level of prestige, will certainly count for something.

I’m shifting to a 55% feeling this transfer now… long way to go, but the smoke smells good, and it looks like there’s fire.

In other shocking news… Eddie Howe is out at Newcastle after rejoining for just one game of pre-season. The English cup winner saw what was coming and tapped out before he was tarred with a relegation scrap brush. This is smart work from him, his stock is high, no one would give him flack for leaving an uninterested club… and he’ll have the pick of the Premier League jobs when people start getting sacked in 2 months’ time.

What does this mean for Bruno? That Eddie knew he was going to lose his captain, and the smoke Newcastle’s press have been denying, has choked them out, and now they have to abandon the ‘Bruno is staying’ hut and watch it burn to the ground.

This, without doubt, is a game-changing signing on so many levels. He’ll raise the dressing room, he’ll have the fans doing cartwheels, this is what we wanted this summer. It takes pressure off our midfield and means we can look forward to a more technically gifted midfield next season.

Finally, there’s some concern about the Timber return to the UK. After surgery, I believe it’s common practice to go and see a specialist. Very much doubt he’s broken again. Still, a bit of warning that it’s far from over with regard to his problems.

Ok, I don’t have much more to give to this post… so I’ll say goodbye and ask that you listen to the latest early bird podcast I ran with Jacob. x

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• We talk about his defensive numbers

• Why Arsenal are the bigger club in 2026

• Why image rights are so important

• What the secret ingredient to the players greatness is

• How important the signing is to the future of Arsenal!

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I’m kind of having fun this summer transfer window, but, you know, stag do fun… I’m drinking, we’re doing the right things, but I’m out of my comfort zone, talking to people I’m not used to fraternising with and I’m fully aware the hangover will outsize the joy I’m having pretending to be a big dog at a bottle service night club in which I am the oldest and poorest patron.

Did that make sense? No? Well, we’re off to a bad start. But please, continue.

The Vini Jnr deal seemed to go off the rails yesterday as Gary Cotterill of all people seemingly put a dagger into Arsenal’s hopes when he declared that Madrid won’t let him go even if he doesn’t sign a new deal.

My suspicion from the off has been that Madrid are so perception-sensitive that they would forgo £100m rather than seem like they were bullied into selling a player they wanted. Especially when the English club is nouveau big daaaawg in their eyes. Letting him go on a free has many benefits if you’re a Trumpian owner of a football team.

1. Reframe the L: You make the player look like the one that wronged the greatest club on the planet, so no one can accuse you of being poor, or ugly compared to the beauty of Arsenal.

2. Traitor Narrative: You have a whole year to desecrate the character of the player you want to keep, rendering them damaged goods by the time they leave on a free the following season.

3. Annoying guy at the bar: When I was 13 years old, I took my first work experience at a famous boutique hotel in Holland Park. I polished glasses, made beds, met a hotel manager who said ‘let’s rock and roll’ a lot… then I was put on duty with the front-of-house concierge guys. I was taken to my first pub ‘lunch’ by a guy in his mid-thirties who was the resident ‘is it beer o’clock?’ at 1030am office lad. He gave me my first Red Bull; you can imagine how that landed. As he crassly flirted with the older lady behind the bar, he noted that this pointed strategy was designed to bypass the heartache of normal women walking away from his cold call shanter, namely because she was stuck with his bad jokes for an extended period of time, and his charms would eventually break through (even at 13, I sensed this strategy had not delivered for him). Madrid, with a whole year on their hands, could put in a lot of work to make sure that a signature lands. They can have conversations we can’t. Jose Mourinho dad jokes and flirtations over the course a year in the trenches might prove fruitful.

This transfer just doesn’t have the hallmarks of an Arsenal win, at least right now. The story is Vini wants to be treated like a superstar, versus a fluffer for Mbappé… and he wants the pesetas in his deal to prove the love. Arsenal being invited to the table feels like one of those high-stakes poker games with Tobey Maguire — if you’re a normo at that table, it’s because you’re going to end up without a house. We won’t lose a house, but we might get carried away with the sweet nothings and end the summer having to gas up £68m Savinho and those first three games at City where he looked like a KING.

This sort of deal, if it were to happen, looks like it’ll go more like Özil than anything else - end of the window, last minute, a moment of madness.

Right now, we just don’t know who is holding what cards:

Do Madrid have the money to offer Vini?

Is there a price that Vini will say yes to?

Do they actually want to sell Vini, so they can rebuild… but want to make it look like a fight for the aesthetics?

Do Arsenal want to look like they’re in this deal, even though it’s a long shot, because the optics of their own summer have been really second rate?

Is this a Kyrie Irving thing… the player just wants out of the LeBron shadow, even if it’s detrimental to future earnings?

This is a bar fight, with the UFC heavyweight who knows mixed martial arts, in 19 different fighting dialects (if you like fighting, that probably didn’t make sense, but it sounded cool when I wrote it)… the football club we’re fighting here is an unbeaten great. They always win. The idea that the team that can’t get a buyer for Fabio Vieira or Gabriel Martinelli is going to somehow rip Vini Jnr from Madrid just feels a touch fanciful.

But hey, happy to look like an idiot here.

William Saliba will be out for four months, which brings him back, at best, just after the second international break in November. The club, according to many random journos, will be going in for another centre back. That won’t be John Stones, who went to Inter Milan (thank the lord). A Brazilian journalist reckons a deal is coming soon… sooner than Bruno. So who knows who that is.

A couple of things here… if you’re adding another centre back, that means you are writing Ben White off as cover. Which I suspect means there’s still a chance he’s moved on this summer. It also means the club might be worried about the return of Jurrien Timber. He’s had a minor op, but there’s no guarantee that’ll solve his problems. It’s all a bit shaky at the back, we’ll see how worried the club is by how large the fee they put down on a centre back. We’ll also see how much faith they have in Mosquera… if it’s Konsa, not very much. If it’s a younger player like Ramón of Como, maybe we’re talking a different type of deal.

My biggest worry about the new season is that Arteta has put a whole group of people in place that’ll just agree with him.

“First of all I saw the energy in the bodies, in their eyes, how they look. And then the players, it was incredible — the shape that they have all come back, better than ever. That tells you the direction that we want to seek and the culture that we have set. Then the way they are training, the questions that they ask you, the direction that they want to take. They are all super powerful signs.

“It is all programmed.

“We have three different pre-seasons with different groups. But the most important thing is not the programme, it is the attitude behind the programme. When I speak to Kai, he is desperate to come back tomorrow and Viktor the same and Piero the same. And when I speak to Declan, he is already talking, ‘OK, if I come this day, then I can play then’, and the rest the same. And that is much more powerful than the programme.

“We want to adapt to the context, which is different. There are a lot of opportunities within them because most of them have great experiences throughout the tournament and have really positive performances this past season as well.”

That Declan line did make me dry-heave. Managers leaning into players who say they are fit when they are not has a very long history of not panning out well. If he’s back for the Community Shield, we’re in big trouble next season.

What would salve some of those blistering thoughts is new players. The Bruno transfer story, in my opinion, would be the most important deal we could do this summer. He’s a ready-made that could eat up Declan minutes without too much damage to the way we play. If Declan is heroin, then Bruno is a fine methadone substitute… Arteta won’t know the difference.

There are just no bad outcomes from a football perspective this season if we get Bruno for around £75m. He slots right into our system. He’s intelligent, relentless, nasty, and he can shoot and pass as well as anyone in world football… he also seems like the kind of guy that gets agitated when he has to introduce himself as a Newcastle player at World Cup duty. He is a latecomer to the elite spheres of the game… and he will make his mark.

Honestly, can you imagine how it’ll feel to us? Only Meslier to calm the cravings? Bruno will be massive for the fans and massive to the dressing room. He’s the sort of player you want to line up with. Just an all-action hero. I really hope Berta can get this deal done with Kia… and if Kia makes it happen, I might be prepared to forgive the Willian deal. Cédric Soares? We have some work to do there.

This comment from Arteta is drawing a lot of attention, the indication being that it means we’re close to something.

“A lot is happening.

“We all know about the context of this transfer window. From ownership to the board, the sporting director and myself, we know that we want to take this club to a different level. That is going to require a better squad, better individuals. We have identified where we have opportunities to grow and to improve and to evolve our game and what is going to be needed to achieve that. Hopefully very soon we can start to put things in a very concrete way.”

You could read this comment in the sense that the club is going to get something magnificent done… you could also read it as the sort of comment a manager who is more psycho than me or you when it comes to bringing in great players, making a pretty big statement about what he wants as he negotiates a new deal worth close to £20m a year, plus bonuses.

Arteta won’t sign for just money, he’ll seek assurances about the level of talent he wants at the club, and the amount of investment… so I kind of see these comments in a bit of a grey area. Clearly, Arsenal are moving at big targets, I just wonder what happens if Vini stays at Madrid, Kvara moving out of PSG becomes impossible, and we’re left with a plan C that looks a lot like what we had in place before.

Too negative? Maybe I’m just protecting my feelings here. This doesn’t feel like a window of abundance for anyone right now… and the level of talent we need to go to ‘a different level’ doesn’t seem clear to me right now. Or it seems clear, but out of reach.

Final bit from me is on Achilles injuries in the NBA. A new study just dropped… and obviously, as a sports science amateur expert, I jumped on it.

This is my robot summarising the report for the thickos (me baby).

What they studied:

• Researchers looked at every NBA player who tore their Achilles tendon between 2014 and 2025 (19 players in total) to see if there was a pattern in how much they’d been playing right before the injury.

Key findings:

• Playing time spiked before the injury. In the 10 and 15 games right before players tore their Achilles, they were playing noticeably more minutes per game than their season average. Basically, a burst of heavy use seemed to precede the injury.

• No single ‘type’ of player was at risk. Age, position (guard, forward, center), starter vs. bench role, and whether someone played multiple sports in high school didn’t make a meaningful difference. This wasn’t limited to any particular kind of player.

• Experience mattered, but in an interesting way. More experienced (veteran) players tended to carry heavier overall workloads in the season they got injured. Younger, less experienced players who tore their Achilles were actually doing so under relatively lighter workloads, suggesting different factors might be at play for them.

• Season-long workload wasn’t unusual. Comparing the injury season to a player’s career average, there wasn’t a big difference in total distance run or total minutes. It was really the short-term spike right before the injury that stood out, not a season-long overload.

• Schedule congestion (back-to-backs, games in a 30-day window) didn’t show a clear link to these injuries, which is somewhat surprising given how much this gets talked about in sports media.

• 2024-25 had a record number of Achilles tears (6 of the 19 cases in this study happened that season alone), which is part of what prompted the research.

So, in short, a small sample size, but the conclusion seems to be that sudden spikes in activity tend to have the biggest impact when it comes to one of the worst injuries in sport. My amateur take here… don’t risk your big-dog players in domestic cups, especially after a World Cup. Be gentle with players returning from major injuries… and be very empathetic when games come extremely thick and fast in December and towards the end of the season (even if players say they are gagging to play 9 games in 3 days).

Also… make sure that the 24-person squad you adopt has at least 18 players who are judged by the manager to be decent. I don’t want to hear that Norgaard is really good in training. No one wants to be complimented for trying really hard at school, but failing the test. We need some genuine selection headaches next season. I want to see Myles robbing Zubi. Put Ethan in the mixer and trust him. Let’s see Marli Salmon taking right back minutes in the domestic cups. All these small risks we take reduce the chance of minutes spikes that break our players.

Also… let’s also remember minutes spikes aren’t just those you see on the pitch. Kai Havertz coming back, then bombing straight back out was just as much to do with the minutes we don’t see… on the training pitch. We have a setpiece coach bonused on setpiece goals. How often does he have players on their feet after training practicing their moves? It all adds up.

Arsenal ranked third for injuries in the Premier League over the past two seasons. We were one of the worst in the league last season. This new raft of specialists have to be able to wrestle that to the ground this season… because if we can ride out the first 4 months of the season without too much damage, we’ll be cooking in January. My fear is, as you know, an exhausting season, combined with an exhausting World Cup, is going to be a mighty sizeable mountain to climb.

Ok, I’m getting all negative again, someone take the laptop from me…

WOAH, give me back my shiny block of metal, I have one last thing… Kroupi, out for 4 months with a fifth metatarsal fracture? Not for me boss… not for me. That is bad news I don’t want a part of. Low blood supply to a fragile bone… baaaad news.

See you in the comments, check out the latest Dugout with Simon Collings and have a damn fine time.

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Here’s what’s inside:

🔥 Hottest of Takes — Chris opens with a Bruno vs Vinicius argument that will divide the room. Johnny has a counter. The reasoning on both sides is genuinely compelling

🌍 Infantino and FIFA — the lads go after the most powerful man in football, the decisions that have defined this World Cup, and why the governance of the game feels increasingly disconnected from the fans who love it

🌟 Vinicius — Hopes Fading? — the noise has gone quiet. Chris and Johnny go through what they know, what they think is happening, and how to manage expectations from here

💸 Bruno Guimaraes — Nearing Completion — the update that has everyone excited. What it means for how Arsenal set up, who it affects, and why Chris thinks this might be the signing of the summer regardless of what else happens

👶 Ethan Nwaneri — The Season Ahead — genuine hope or wishful thinking? Chris and Johnny make the case for why this could finally be his year and what unlocks it

⚖️ Overrated vs Underrated — Arsenal players and transfer targets put under the microscope. Some popular opinions get challenged. Some unpopular ones get defended. Nobody fully agrees

🏆 The Key Factors For Success Next Season — six months of work, a title to defend, a Champions League to chase. Chris and Johnny identify the two or three things that have to go right for Arsenal to dominate again

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Here’s what’s inside:

🔥 Hottest of Takes — Simon makes the case that Arsenal’s quiet pre-season media blackout is actually a sign of confidence, not chaos. Jacob goes after the club’s inability to sell players and asks whether Berta needs to get ruthless before he can get creative

📰 The Journalist’s View — what it’s actually like covering the transfer window in the social media age, why every deal now has seventeen stages, and why Simon is already dreaming of September 1st when he can just talk about football again

🐕 Arteta and the Dog — the behind-the-scenes Tzolis announcement video. Simon was there. Jacob needs to know everything

🌟 The Vinicius Question — Simon won’t go as far as Jacob wants him to. But he won’t fully shut it down either. A very careful and very interesting conversation about what he does and doesn’t know

😤 Ben White — Reality Check — Jacob asks the hard question about what the market actually looks like for a right back whose knees are held together by sellotape and who’s barely played two seasons in a row. Simon’s answer is sobering

⚡ Fresneda — The Smart Alternative? — a right back Jacob’s been a fan of for years. Simon goes through the price, the profile, and why signing someone dynamic on the right could unlock the best of both Saka and Ben White

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I’m like a fiend, running around, breaking into houses, going through bins, finding used transfer tips, all in the name of the sweet, sweet fix of pure galactico gold.

I don’t mind how it comes, honestly. I was getting just as high off Chelsea bumps yesterday… first, it started with Danny Welbeck, then it finished with the news that Jordan Henderson could be heading their way as well. Morgan Rogers, welcoming BIG Danny to training next week… truly spectacular stuff from the biggest club in London.

I have also been electrified by seeing their 10 center-back pile-up as they try to add Maxence Lacroix.

For all the ‘wow, Chelsea sell well’ bluster, we do tend to forget that they spend extraordinary amounts on a lot of distinctly average players… and lose money on them.

I still can’t quite get over the fact that Arsenal are in a position in 2026 where they seem to be legitimately putting pressure on Real Madrid as they stalk one of their best players. Vini Jnr feels like a long shot, but whatever is going on, he’s given Arsenal the come-on, and our mere presence is speeding up negotiations as the countdown to the end of the window begins in earnest.

A group of newspapers and talking heads appear to confirm that, yes, Arsenal know they are going to have to pony up extraordinary amounts of cash to make the deal happen. My guess is with this particular transfer, Arsenal have weighed up the ‘once in a blue moon’ opportunity, mashed it with marketability, and the nowness of the player… and said, f*ck it, if we can do it, we should.

Josh K talked about the Declan transfer at the end of last season and basically said, if you’re looking at a player who makes you better, can lead, and can do things no other player can do… you have to consider it. They did with Declan, and went beyond what they had planned.

I’ve seen some chatter that actually, Arsenal don’t do budgets, and they’re loose. This, clearly, could not be further from the truth. The Arsenal model is about sustainability (it has been across their entire portfolio), KSE is known for keeping finances in check, and we know that the club has walked from at least two deals this summer based on valuations. Vini is an exceptional circumstance, but possibly only on the wages. One would imagine he’s not going to fetch a mega fee because he only has a year left on his deal. Spurs went from a Kane £150m price tag, to a £90m one when the deal was winding down. I can’t imagine Arsenal would go higher than £100m for a player who can move for a free next season.

I can imagine that the wages will make a man’s eyes bleed… but if you want to change the course of the club, if you want to be a global player, land the global revenues, and be in the running for the big trophies year after year… then you buy players like Vini Jnr. There aren’t many in his bracket. Kvara is probably the only one that comes close talent-wise. Álvarez lives close to that world… but he’s a mere pauper when it comes to marketability. You’re not going to see the Argentine on tube adverts… Vini Jnr, sorry to say, is an ultimate franchise player.

Icks me out when I go like that, but sometimes, needs must…

Oh my WORD. We signed Tzolis, 30 G&A three seasons in a row, to back up Vini, 30 G&A FIVE seasons in a row.

There’s a lot of seemingly well-written guff from teenagers who use ChatGPT to tell fanciful stories about how Arsenal are moving on this deal. The real publications in Brazil and Spain seem to have similar lines of attack… the priority for Vini is Madrid, but Arsenal are going to pressure with a big deal of their own and they’ll test the waters.

However the deal goes, you have to salute the club… imagine this as a headline 6 years ago? You’d have laughed at its impossibility. The team that stole Nik Anelka from us so we could build a training ground, now on the back foot, scrambling to keep one of their own galacticos. The shifting sands of power… getting closer, and closer. I love it.

Also, shoutout to all the paywalled publications writing articles with titles like ‘why Vini Jnr could help Arsenal.’ Needed the data to understand the value.

There are some other transfer rumours heating up the airways… Jacobo Ramón is the centre back from Como we’re looking at. 21 years old, coached by the mighty Cesc, Spanish… with some very nice attributes.

The defender is 6ft 5in tall. He’s not the fastest, but he has the telescopic legs for those Patrick Vieira slide tackles. Defensively, he’s very sound, 95th percentile for aerial duels, and 90th percentile for tackles. But he’s also great on the ball, spraying it around the pitch very much like Willy Saliba… and surprisingly, he can move the ball between the lines with a deftness usually reserved for a small defender.

The only weakness is good players can tend to look great in Italy, the jump to the Premier League from the slowness of Serie A is quite substantial, but… I love the profile, and would prefer Arsenal invest big money in younger defenders, vs panic buying names like Ezri Konsa for short-term problems.

Also… Ramón is a number 14 centre back? Too much sauce… honestly, sign him up.

Ok, short one today… gotta ration out the transfer gossip. Jacob is returning with a Dugout Special later today! Keep your eyes PEELED. x

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The whole world has lost their damn heads over the potential Arsenal move for Vini Jnr. It’d be an earthquake of a signing. A statement as big as Dennis Bergkamp, a move designed to set Arsenal on the path to winning the Champions League.

But before we get into that, some updates on injuries.

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Here’s what’s inside:

🔥 Hottest of Takes — Jacob side-steps the Vinicius hysteria to make the case that Rodri’s back surgery and Real Madrid links might quietly be the biggest story of the summer for Arsenal. Johnny’s take is about what walking away from Morgan Rogers actually said about this club — and why it should make everyone more confident, not less

🌟 Are We Getting Vinicius Jr? — the evidence, the logic, the fan theories, and the completely spurious internet speculation. Johnny and Jacob treat all of it with equal enthusiasm and make no apologies for doing so

📊 Why This Would Be The Biggest Transfer In Arsenal’s History — bigger than Özil. Johnny makes the case. Jacob agrees. A player who was second in the Ballon d’Or, in his peak, choosing Arsenal. The lads try to keep their feet on the ground. They don’t fully succeed

🐊 We Move Like A Crocodile Now — Jacob’s theory about what walking away from Morgan Rogers actually means is one of the best takes of the summer. Arsenal aren’t rushing. They’re waiting. And Vinicius is a giant wildebeest

⏰ 26 Days Until The Season Starts — the lads clock it live on air and both go slightly pale. It’s coming. Fast

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Well… what a day. I travel to the UK and David Ornstein drops arguably the biggest Arsenal transfer story of all time.

The people suggesting we show some ambition and put our names in the mixer for the Brazilian this summer were in abundance, and I cannot be a liar here, I looked down on them.

‘These fools, what are they smoking.’

Truth zoots. Honesty blunts. Call them what you want, but the people speaking transfers like this into reality were the chosen ones and I want the name of their dealer, or newly legalised dispensary.

This story has many layers, much uncertainty, and a lot of work to do before it happens… but one thing is for sure, if David Ornstein gets specific about…

There have been no club-to-club talks yet but the idea has approval at all levels within Arsenal.

… then you can be sure that Josh and Stan are in on this deal much in the same way they backed our moves to go big for Declan all those summers ago.

It’s quite the statement move. It’s what Premier League Champions and Champions League finalists try and do to push to the next level. It’s the first signing we’ve been linked to this summer where you’re like, yeah, I see the vision and I’m not sure we could do much better than that. It’s also interesting in the sense that it’s not need to spend £190m to get him. There’s a cap on the fee because his deal runs until next summer, so I doubt it can go higher than £100m.

Vini Jnr, without doubt, is absolutely world class. He’s a finisher, he’s saucy, he’s the next level Wenger spoke about… and his main solve is that he’d terrify down the left and it would free Saka from the triple lock he faces every game because our current left has been less worrying.

Exceptional passing, outrageous shooting, and extremely good ball carrying mark him out as an attacking threat for the ages. 22 goals and 14 assists last season. 22 goals and 19 assists the season before. He just has so much output it’s hard to comprehend. Not just that… he’s a Champions League MONSTER — 67 G&A in 82 appearances. If you want to win that trophy, he’s the unlock. 228 G&A in 375 appearances… what a player. What’s more? He’s very robust.

Fears? I think he’s quite a combustible character. He’s been spoiled by Madrid for a very long time. You don’t really need to do the dirty work out there. The tactical style has been ‘do as you please’ and any talk of systems and off-the-ball work has usually been met with downed tools and sackings (poor Xabi). How is he going to cope with a control freak like Arteta in a league that goes man-to-man in every game? Who knows… a story for another day.

The other weakness of the transfer is the reality of Madrid. They are bigger than Arsenal. Much bigger. Especially to a Brazilian. He wants to leave because they are stalling on his new deal, where he’s asking for €30m a year. £492,000 a week to get him to a gross of £411,000. He’s also asking for a £12.8m loyalty bonus from what I can see. It’s always murky to use Spanish papers to get to these numbers, but what does it really tell you?

Arsenal are going to smash out their pay structure to sign him… I’m using AI to help me here, but to get to his desired Madrid take-home, at Arsenal, this is what we’d need to be looking at.

To take home £17.1m net in the UK, you’d need to earn around £32.2 million a year gross — about £619,000 a week.

That is Haaland-level cash we’re talking about here.

A lot of folk scoffing at that, but a few pointers here based on speaking to people in the game.

Arsenal won’t be naive to these numbers if they’re leaking to media that they are in at all levels. They know he’s expensive, they know this is the biggest thing they’ve ever attempted, it won’t be a problem. KSE works in sport across the spectrum, and they’ve spent big before.

Dressing rooms want to see mega players in them. First and foremost, when you are Saliba and Saka, you want to be working with Vini Jnr because he helps you win major trophies. I don’t think they’ll be crying about his wages. Agents? Maybe. But look at Vini Jnr, what he’s done, and what he represents.

If you want to be a mega footballer, you have to accept that some earn more than you, and Vini Jnr is a bigger footballer than Bukayo, he’s been doing it longer, and he has more to show for it. That isn’t to knock Saka, it’s just the truth. You don’t enter the story for Vini Jnr unless you are fully prepped to pay the price of the deal.

So what’s working against us?

Arsenal are the stalking horse. We’re the exit plan if he doesn’t get the love. Florentino Pérez and José Mourinho are two of the biggest egos in the room. They know what Vini represents both from a sporting perspective and from an optics perspective. Let him go… and it could be a sting in the tail, even for an ungrateful Madrid fan base. Is Yan Diomandé filling the gap? I don’t know. But it’s high risk. If Florentino wants to keep Vini, he will keep him. If José really wants him, he will keep him.

But… Madrid’s finances are murky, José is a change agent, they might see a player in the last year of his deal as a good person to exit. Losing out on £100m for a player with one year left would be cataclysmic. Keeping a noisy player on the books could be disruptive, especially as he’ll become the only question when they’re pushing for titles. Also… sometimes, the story has to come to an end.

So, in short, this whole thing is very speculative right now. All we know is that if the rumour is there, Arsenal have interest from his people, Madrid are interested in what the deal is…. and the transfer gods are smiling.

My major concern here is this… this feels like the sort of distracting transfer story that could go to the wire and give us nothing. Remember, Arsenal also need good news distractions as their summer goes to hell with disappointments. ‘We tried for Vini’ works nicely for them as well. Hard to have a plan B in a deal like that… and your plan B, say, Álvarez, might not like that he’s not the plan A.

I’ll just briefly touch on Álvarez. Viktor is being bundled in swap deal talk. It makes a lot of sense, they need a new goal-scoring 9, we would move on a technically weak forward if we had the chance, Álvarez is a top priority for Arteta at all times. He can play second striker, striker, and on the left side. He would be a HUGE upgrade to our creativity, and he’d be great for overall output. People saying that Gyok was integral to our title push… sure, I can give that to you, but we’d have won the title if Kai was the feature of the season as well. That doesn’t mean we can ignore the touch, the weakness against top 10 teams, the anonymity in the Champions League final, the pointlessness of him in games against big teams. We need an upgrade. Álvarez would be that.

There’s also the Bruno story. Too boring to keep reporting on. Arsenal feel good about it, or did last time I spoke on it. Newcastle have lost a lot of players, they’re not buying very well, it’s very up in the air. I’m feeling good we’ll get it done if they’ll take £75m. If they dig in on value, I don’t think our ownership group will sign off on it because it is CRAZY to spend more than that on a player who is 28 years old. That is not how we got to the success we have in 2026. We should be signing younger players. Loading up with players at the age where most start to break or fade physically isn’t good business. The only reason Bruno gets a pass is that he is best in class, he’d plug and play, and we’re in deep trouble if Declan gets injured this season.

So let’s see where this all goes… Arsenal signing a cut-price Vini Jnr as Chelsea fans gaslight themselves into believing Rogers is worth £117m is total cinema.

Have a GOOD day. x

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They discuss Bruno, Tzolis, that Saliba injury, and the moves Man City are making.

Take a listen right now, you beautiful member. x

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Well here he is, the new boy, Christos Tzolis. A Greek pocket god sent from the heavens to salve the Arsenal fan base with maximal outputs!

Look, you can scoff at this signing because his name isn’t Bradley Barcola, or you can look at the scouting job here… and marvel that we’re solving output problems with a guy who has racked up 30+ G&A for three seasons on the bounce.

He has high levels of quality in and around the box; his shooting is exceptional, and the touch is very, very good and stands up to Champions League levels of rigor.

The only thing that worries me is the top speed. This guy is more of a Volvo SUV on the autobahn than a Ferrari… his top speed in the Jupiler League last season via Gradient was 32.89 km/h. For context:

• Martinelli 35.02

• Saka 32.9

• Trossard 32.89

• Noni 33.49

• Gyokeres 33.80

No slouch, but certainly not ripping up trees on breakaways THAT WE ALMOST NEVER GET.

This is a tight-spaces kind of guy. This is the player who foxes in boxes. Tzolis can fashion a pass or a shot under pressure, and deliver. I’ve watched the videos… I can confirm, he looks up before he passes.

Honestly, have I gone to heaven and woken up watching a GREEK SHORT KING freescoring while the papers write about him being bargain buy of the summer?

Too far.

The prince has proved nothing yet.

Another thing to note is that we signed a player who hasn’t been at the World Cup, after we sold Leo Trossard. Does that speak to the club selling before we buy? Maybe. Might not be the same in every role, but this move does add gravity to the idea that Arsenal aren’t going to keep adding bodies to the squad. We need to make moves to fund moves.

One that I’m keeping an eye on? Martinelli. He was linked to Atlético Madrid. This feels like a perfect destination for him and I could fully imagine Arsenal bringing Álvarez the other way in such a situation.

I’m also slightly concerned that if we land Bruno, the sting in the tail could be that we see Ethan go in the other direction in a loan-to-perm deal much like the Garnacho one with Villa. But that really is my conspiracy smooth brain working overdrive to keep the post maximally interesting to you.

Mr Berta, when he’s not gassing to the magnificent Hand of Arsenal, speaks to the website occasionally about new players.

“Christos is an extremely versatile attacking player who naturally operates on the left but is comfortable across the front line. He’s an excellent finisher with both feet, thrives in tight spaces, and possesses incredible technical ability.

“Christos has produced outstanding numbers in terms of goals and assists over the last three seasons, and he’s a player who will raise the technical level of our squad, while bringing positive energy, enthusiasm, and a strong mentality to our team.

“We’re confident Christos will make a significant contribution to our club, and we hope our supporters will enjoy watching him play in an Arsenal shirt.”

Notable that the messaging of the video was very much OUTPUT OUTPUT OUTPUT. It’s clear what the move was here and I very much like it. A few people (no one) have been asking me how he compares to Trossard… probably because I speak data like a Sporting Director.

Note that these are Premier League numbers vs Champions League numbers… but exciting nonetheless. If Tzolis can adapt to England (noting that he flopped last time), we could have a player with a very high ceiling.

Also, he likes to defend. Which is very good for Mikel. This is what the player said about himself in great English.

“I'm a direct player, I go for goals or assists,”

“That's my point of view as an attacker, as a winger. I'm always hungry to score or to give the final pass to my teammates. And I can say I work hard for the team, also in the defensive part.”

Key data for me is below.

We’re getting a lot of very positive signals for a sub £40m fee. This is the sort of move Man City or Liverpool would drop in the past and it’d turn out great. I have to say, I’m still burned by Fabio ‘better output that Messi’ Vieira… but that’s just a me problem

Overall, my hope is this is the first of a few big signings… and Bruno is next.

We shall see. I dropped a tasty little Therapy Session for you as well. Get it into your veins.

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Here’s what’s inside:

🔥 Hottest of Takes — Jacob doesn’t want a centre-back and makes the case with enough conviction to talk Pete round. Consa at £50 million when Mosquera, Timber and Marley Salmon exist? Jacob says no. Pete says maybe just do Stones for free. Both agree Declan Rice will absolutely start the Community Shield and both are slightly terrified about that

🐭 Tzolis — The Full Verdict — Pete pulls up the highlights live and the lads go through it frame by frame. Fox in the box. Trossard replacement. Head up, give and go, whack on him despite not looking physically imposing. Jacob calls it the antidote to the forward line of death

💸 One In, One Out — The Financial Reality — Pete lays out what happened after last summer’s spending spree. Four new finance people on the board. A deal that went badly overpriced. Arsenal need to sell this summer and Pete has a theory about who goes where — including a Martinelli to Atletico swap idea that is genuinely interesting

😤 Jacob Would Love It If Gyökeres Went — he says it. He means it. He’s not taking it back. Pete doesn’t fully disagree

🔜 Bruno — It’s Coming — the lads keep checking Twitter throughout. By the time you’re listening to this, the big one may already be done

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Do you remember back in the Ivan Gazidis days when he and Arsène Wenger were all like, yeah, when financial fair play kicks in, we’ll be kings of this town… and it never happened, and we were never kings of the town.

I do kind of feel like that’s the era we’re in at the moment, except our ownership group these days invests, and we still win things despite everyone else around us bending rules like Wall Street’s finest.

The ‘owner to owner’ deals speak to one thing to me… close relationships between clubs that have similar challenges.

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Here’s what’s inside:

🔥 Hottest of Takes — Matt is suddenly very excited about Ethan Nwaneri. He’s been in the gym, he’s been in the England camp, and Matt makes the Myles Lewis-Skelly comparison that’s going to make a lot of people feel a lot better about the summer. Pete’s take is about Arsenal’s valuation discipline and why walking away from overpriced targets is actually the Man City playbook

😂 Chelsea’s Announcement Video — “Joined the biggest club in London.” Pete and Matt go through it frame by frame. It is not good. The Eze announcement comparison is not kind to anybody involved

💸 Why Can’t Arsenal Sell? — the Somerville to Al-Hilal story reopens a wound. Berta was brought in to move players as well as buy them. Pete asks where the Saudi numbers are for Arsenal’s fringe players. Matt tells the story of a mate who went to Saudi for electrical work and never looked back. It’s relevant

⚙️ Zubimendi — World Cup Winner, Dark Horse For Next Season — rested, recharged, point to prove. Pete makes the case that recency bias has done Zubi dirty and the version coming back this August is going to surprise people

🔜 Members Bonus — Yan Diamonde — a name linked to Arsenal gets the full treatment on Patreon. Members only

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I will not lie. This analysis was not thought out. But we started, so we had to go on. Hope you enjoy this little bonus. Link with the doc…

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More news crept out into the Arsenal ether yesterday that gave more credence to the thinking on the blog yesterday…

• Arsenal are a tighter-run ship this summer.

• Valuations put down on paper are going to be adhered to so emotion doesn’t take over.

• The slow movement of Arsenal and the spinning plates stratagems of Andrea Berta are causing players to doubt the seriousness of the Arsenal word.

The only surprise from The Athletic article was how far off our valuation of Rogers was… a full £37m short of where Chelsea ended up. The number is a ludicrous fee, but Chelsea have already started the summer strongly with big sales, they’ll put £100m in the coffers for Enzo, and they’ll probably get some of that dollar back from Villa when Nico Jackson ends up there next season. Meanwhile, Arsenal collecting less money for Leo Trossard than the mooted number they’re demanding for Gabriel ‘12 games in 4 years’ Jesus.

Things got worse for Arsenal in The Athletic story.

Rogers felt he connected to the Spaniard and was impressed by being pursued so passionately by a figure with such a strong reputation as both a player and manager. As one source told The Athletic: "He came away from their conversation thinking Xabi Alonso is the real deal."

This sort of commentary must stick in the craw for Mikel Arteta, because back in the day, his main superpower was being an incredible salesman. Now, as a Premier League Champion, it would appear the magic was not quite there on this one… Alonso, his childhood friend, managed to get the upper hand without Champions League football.

This quote really landed the point I was making yesterday.

Aston Villa co-owner and chairman Nassef Sawiris had the final say on whether Rogers would go. An informal encounter with the Arsenal hierarchy in the US provided an opportunity to discuss a potential transfer.

Hierarchy, for me, tends to insinuate that this encounter was likely not Berta and Arteta… and probably folk from KSE. The big innovation on this deal, according to Ornstein yesterday, was that this Chelsea deal was brokered at speed, owner to owner. Sawiris, informally meeting with the decision-makers at Arsenal, makes sense during a World Cup in which they had a host stadium.

It’s also clear that this deal really did happen fast and the slowness of the deal for both teams was related to the World Cup. Chelsea started negotiations after England lost and the deal was wrapped in 48 hours. There are more stories doing the rounds that Berta was dealing with intermediaries… but I tend to lean on the above… Villa knew Arsenal weren’t going to match their number, so they locked in with Chelsea who just agreed rather than playing silly buggers with spinning plates.

Occam’s Razor people, that’s where we are… valuations are going to be tighter because budgets are going to be more controlled this summer.

This is quite frustrating as a fan, but ultimately, we were treated to something quite outlandish last summer… and now Berta has some work to do to fill the coffers. I don’t think it’s outrageous to suggest that if Chelsea can flog us players like Madueke for £55m, we should be finding a suitor for Martinelli a little easier. If Konsa is valued at £60m, Premier League winner Ben White should probably have a higher valuation than £30m. Finally, if Gabi Jesus is on the market for £20m, we should be taking the keys from Berta because all these valuations are breaking my brain.

Still, I will maintain, Bruno G would be a significant signing for Arsenal and give us an immediate boost in the market. I don’t think I’d be happy to see us going to £85m, but £70m wouldn’t be outrageous considering his qualities and the need in a post-World Cup Declan universe. My big fear on this deal is that Newcastle might end up being a destination for Ethan Nwaneri, who looks like he’ll be locked out by the lesser player in Madueke this summer. That exit, one of ‘pure profit’ nature, really worries me. Ethan is a top talent, he’s a baby, he could end up haunting us as we desperately scratch around for money to bolster our flagging window.

Though there is a general flatness in the fan base right now, we have to remember that there are plenty of very good players that’ll be on the market this summer. Álvarez, Barcola, and names we’re not yet familiar with will enter the fray. I am extremely hopeful that there are some names that could light up our starting 11. My main worry is that the difference-making Premier League talent that tends to have a higher chance of success is looking quite limited. That’s a problem if we get early-season struggles with the fatigued players.

But, we have to roll with the punches. Arsenal’s success has been built on plan Bs and Cs. Only children cry over transfer targets longer than 3 days. Berta and his Human Algorithm buddy will have plenty of options and hopefully be rattling phones to move some bodies to Arsenal. Again, if £80m was available for Rogers, it’s still there… that is a big number, it can get you some big talent. The market was £117m for Rogers because there’s only one team in England crazy enough to go there. If there was another Rogers available, I very much doubt you’d have another buyer ready to do a fee like that.

Big couple of weeks… players are back… let’s start getting in the mood for some very serious pre-seasoning. x

Here’s what’s inside:

🔥 Hottest of Takes — Matt goes after Arsenal’s inability to sell players and makes the case that it’s costing us in the transfer market more than any individual miss. Pete counters with hopium, Man City’s valuation history, and a list of Plan B signings that ended up being better than the Plan A

😤 Morgan Rogers — What Happened And Why — the £117 million valuation, Berta walking away, and why Pete thinks this one was actually the right call. A history of Man City walking away from overpriced targets makes the case

💸 Sell To Buy — Matt’s Big Argument — Madüeke, Zubimendi, Odegaard, Kai, Gyökeres. Matt thinks all of them should have a price. The attack is mid-table without stardust signings and the wages bill is suffocating the window

🏆 Chelsea — The New Title Rivals? — Alonso, no European football, Morgan Rogers signed. Pete and Matt go through why Chelsea might be the most dangerous team in the league next season, not because they’re better but because they’ll be fresher

👔 Arteta’s New Deal — The Power Play — Pete makes the case that Arteta’s comments after the Champions League final were a warning shot, not a promise. And why the power he has at Arsenal is something no other club in the world can offer him. Cesc Fabregas gets a mention as heir apparent

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Here’s what’s inside:

🏆 Spain Win It — Arsenal’s Three World Cup Winners — Merino, Zubimendi and Raya. Pete and Matt on what it means, Merino’s iconic ball-in-the-face moment, and why the final itself was a bit of a wet fish after the England third-place classic

🇺🇸 America’s World Cup — The Verdict — Matt makes the case that the hydration breaks and halftime shows weren’t actually that bad. Pete goes further. Jets fans fighting each other on a train for 15 minutes is noted separately

💸 The Mega Signing Coming — Pete teases something big that’s moving. Matt is very excited. A whole pod dedicated to one deal is already being planned

🛡️ Consa vs John Stones — The Saliba Problem — Saliba’s back issue means Arsenal need cover and they need it now. Pete makes a bold case for John Stones on a short-term deal. Matt raises the injury record concern and doesn’t fully capitulate. Both agree on one thing: the attack needs every penny first

⚠️ The Defensive Depth Chart Is Terrifying — Saliba, Gabriel, Timber, Ben White, Mosquera. Pete goes through them one by one and the question marks pile up. The Arsene Wenger “it’ll be fine” approach is explicitly rejected

🔜 Coming Soon — The Morgan Rogers Special — a whole episode dedicated to missing out on Rogers and what it means for the window. Keep your eyes peeled

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My oh my, what a difference 24 hours can make to the mood of Arsenal fans.

David Ornstein dropped a monster story yesterday afternoon that was CATACLYSMIC in impact.

So many layers to unpack here…

Firstly, how does a team like Chelsea keep on finding bottomless pits of money? They are not in the Champions League this season, they have had all sorts of clashes over their finances, yet somehow… they have found £117m and potentially a 7-year deal for one of the best English U24 players on the planet. Ornstein said on a podcast that this was an owner to owner deal, it was done fast, it’s the full whack of cash.

Kind of crazy…

Now, I will say, ignore all the ‘only has eyes for Arsenal’ chatter that goes on. Most players, unless they are Max Dowman, will have preferences, but not definitives. When it all shakes out, the best money, a clearly defined project, and the longest deal comes out way ahead of anything emotional like who they supported as a kid. Arsenal might have been the preference, but we didn’t offer the best money, we didn’t move fast, and we forget that at the top of the market, speed is usually the greatest asset.

But more to the point… Andrea Berta didn’t have the money to do this deal, he tried to drag it out from what I’ve heard, that annoyed everyone along the way apparently, and Rogers’ people sniffed out the strategy… probably by looking at what happened last summer. In the end, owners stepped in, and made it happen man to man.

Again… first big clue… we are dragging out deals (Bruno) or walking away from numbers that are too rich (Monga/Fernandes)

So let’s make this complicated outcome easier to digest, using a little bit of copium to get through.

Money is likely a little bit tighter than we think

Arsenal spent about £300m last summer. This was not what we expected. It was an exception to the rule. It was… a madness. I don’t think that was the number people were planning towards at the start of last year.

When the dust settled, what happened that none of us spoke about? Arsenal axed Tim Lewis, when most thought he’d be promoted. They reshuffled the board, and there was only one position we spoke about, because we were all kind of wowed by it.

Ben Winston was the showstopper. Young, dynamic, incredibly successful both sides of the pond in the world in media and production. He would be capable of elevating the club to new levels in many areas that are fundamental to being a global power player… he was added to the board to help Arsenal go to the next level in the world of media partnerships… and also, let us not forget, we added the care of a massive Arsenal fan. Something I think we can all agree on felt like it lacked, at least at a level we could connect with. Strategically, this made sense. From an outcome perspective, one would sense that we have already seen exciting movement here.

What didn’t we talk about? The other three members and why they were added. This is how the Arsenal website framed it.

Along with this change comes evolution to our Board of Directors, led by Co-Chairs, Stan and Josh Kroenke. After five years with Arsenal, Tim Lewis steps down from the Board and has left the club. Kroenke Sports & Entertainment’s Kelly Blaha and Otto Maly will join our Board as Non-Executive Directors alongside long-time KSE advisor, Dave Steiner. They will bring the KSE family closer together and offer a wide range of expertise to strengthen Arsenal.

What do we have?

Kelly — Finance.

Otto — Day to day operator of KSE sports franchises.

Dave — Accounting.

First name terms on a blog? Why not.

I have worked for an English independent company that was taken over by a Japanese company, which put it under the control of an American leadership group. What is the message when names like that come in after excesses of an earn out?

Financial control, baby.

Did you put an M&S luxury prawn sandwich on your expense report between the hours of 18:00 and 20:00? Fired. Did you stay in a Holiday Inn Premium Deluxe ++ instead of a Premium Luxe + on Thursday night? Fired. Dear lord, tell me you didn’t have a Jack Daniel’s and Coke vs a Jack Daniel’s and Sainsbury’s Coca-LOLa? Fired.

When they helicopter in the Americans, exit the English lawyer who was in love with the manager, let me tell you… there’s usually a reason for it and this one feels fairly clear to me based on those job titles. This happened in September, right after a summer that blew our damn minds. The last time timing worked so clinically was when Tim Lewis was brought into the club, and Raul was out weeks later. Again, after a lot of expenditure.

I am not suggesting Arsenal won’t spend this summer, I just think there’s a new world Andrea Berta and Mikel Arteta are living in, and it’s a world much more alligned with processes and rigor we saw pre-Berta. We can’t be the richest spenders, so let’s be the smartest, and if a deal looks crazy, we’re going to walk away. That is essentially how Man City operated for years - they dropped out of many deals as soon as the finances got too heavy. They passed on Declan Rice, but also a number of others.

• Jorginho (2018) — City had a deal shaping up with Napoli, but pulled out when the price rose to £57m, leading Chelsea to sign the midfielder instead. goal

• Harry Maguire (2019) — City were keen but refused to meet Leicester’s asking price of £80m, which saw the defender eventually move to Manchester United instead. goal

• Kalidou Koulibaly (2020) — Same story with Napoli again; City withdrew from a deal to sign Koulibaly from Napoli in 2020. goal

• Marc Cucurella (2022) — City backed away from a move for Marc Cucurella, who later moved to Chelsea from Brighton for more than £60m. goal

• Riyad Mahrez (2017 window) — City pursued him but were unwilling to meet Leicester’s £95m valuation, though they did eventually sign him a year later for a lot less. ESPN

• Harry Kane (2021) City's real number one target after losing Sergio Aguero. Their opening bid was £100m guaranteed plus the option of including players, which Spurs rejected outright. City then prepared an improved offer, but Daniel Levy's valuation sat around £150m, while City weren't willing to go that high — City wanted to get closer to £120m even after already breaking the British transfer record for Jack Grealish. ESPN

I also think the through thread of the summer makes a lot more sense… we spent a huge sum last summer, didn’t sell any players. We have an even bigger squad this summer, still haven’t sold any players. If you want to be dispassionate here the way an owner like Stan would be… why does a squad that won the Premier League with loads of injuries AND was within a penalty shootout of a Champions League final need a £400m upgrade? I know, I know, it’s more complicated than that. But you’re not selling me on this idea here, I want us to spend… you’re selling a guy who runs businesses sustainably. They might be looking at the squad and asking, at what point, do we shift players that are not needed? Where are the sales? Villa and Chelsea seem to be very capable of selling players, where are the Arsenal exits? How is our record sale STILL The Ox.

Berta and Arteta

I’ve seen a lot of commentary about Arteta demanding a big summer after the Champions League and some anger being put the way of the Sporting Director. Matt Scott has it right, they don’t set the budgets. If they don’t have the money to work with, they aren’t going to be able to do much. If you valued Rogers at £85m, then go back to the board as have to ask for £32m extra, how do you think serious business people view those convervsations? It’s not easy. Have you ever had to ask your boss for £10k extra on a salary for talent? Doesn’t often go well. Now imagine asking for that much money that has to come out of their pocket. You are not only asking for more, you are also saying you don’t believe in your valuation, which is an indecisive look.

Can Berta be criticised for moving slow? I think there’s a grain of truth that his approach to saying he’s interested in everyone, then slowballing clubs, or generally messing everyone around, might not always be the best way to operate. But at the end of the day, what makes transfers move fast is conviction… and having the money to push a deal over the line.

One thing that stood out to me hearing Josh Kroenke discuss spending £105m on Declan was that the whole exec team was brought in on the deal and knew what was happening. It wasn’t a deal based on emotion or a whim. It wasn’t reactionary. I do wonder if the spinning plates approach of Berta might feel a little unplanned and rushed? Opportunistic moves also tend to cost more money. I’m thinking of that Eze deal that probably could have been wrapped earlier in the summer. If you’ll remember, Steve Parish telegraphed his availability September 2024.

“I was really worried from a club point of view of losing Michael and Ebbs in the same window and we didn’t have in Ebbs the interest that I thought we would have,”

“I was astounded. Genuinely astounded. I mean, the guy’s just an outstanding footballer, an outstanding person.”

Instead of moving early, we waited until Spurs had a fee agreed, and went in above it. That cost us money. Remember, Olise, the younger player, moved for £50.8m. How did we end up at £67m? Hard to imagine that wasn’t related to the late move desperation and having to blow Spurs out the water. Eze, was clearly not part of the early summer plans… does it make for incomfortable chats to be asked to fork out big cash last minute?

As for Mikel Arteta, he’s about to sign the richest deal in world football. He’ll be pushing £25m a year. He will always demand money for players, he doesn’t care about finances, he just wants the best players… as he should. One positive is I am sure he’ll be pushing to have assurances over transfer spend in his deal so we are competitive. Also, I’m not worried about him leaving… no doubt, he’d have suitors. But he’s in the Wenger position now, no other club would afford him the power we have give him. That’s a good thing in the short term, because Arteta is the best in the game… longterm, it’s not great that we afford coaches so much power. Never ends well.

Targets can shift…

Do you have faith in the system that brought you a Premier League title and a Champions League final?

No?

Stop reading, go outside, and give yourself the hairdryer treatment.

Ok. Are we ready to be serious? Good.

Transfer windows are crazy. We attach ourselves to names before we even think about how they’ll work. If you are telling me that you wrapped last season and said, you know what boys and girls?

‘We need Morgan Rogers to tip us over the edge next season…’

I would not be believing you.

Is he a good player? Sure. Is he the difference maker we’ve been crying out for? I’m not so sure. There are some red flags for me in his game and he just simply isn’t a £117m player. Not in any world. He ranks 33rd of 35 for ball control in the Premier League up against other attacking midfielders. 221th of 251 for the same metric at the World Cup. An alarming number for a player who will be up against filthy deep blocks that require extreme levels of control to meander.

Arsenal have missed out on plenty of first-choice targets and we’re still the Premier League Champions.

• Declan over Caicedo.

• Zinchenko over Martínez.

• Big Vik over Sesko.

• Jesus over Vlahovic.

• Trossard over Mudryk.

• Odegaard over Maddison.

Rogers, for me, felt like the sort of signing Arteta typically goes for… powerful, fast, a little bit unsophisticated.

Don’t we want better? Are we really convinced a player with an average touch is the level we didn’t have last season? No way. I’m not having it. Too many people agree with me, but just don’t like the principle that we missed out on someone Arteta wanted.

New targets will emerge, old targets will drop…

I have heard there are strong feelings of positivity that Arsenal will get the Bruno deal over the line in the coming weeks. The fee will not be £100m, Newcastle have to sell him, I have my doubts that United would go to £100m in a gazump move. I also have faith that this player does actually want Arsenal, and so does his agent (I know what I said earlier). A deal is there to be done and there are absolutely no doubts about his ability to impact the club. For me, Bruno would be a better signing for our needs than Rogers ever could be, even with the age issue.

I also think there are other targets the club is working on that will come to light. We might not have nation state money, but there will be room to spend, especially if do sell some players who are sure to have some sort of market rate.

Exploding this early in the summer, after we’ve won a title, feels a little premature… especially over someone like Rogers. I have been told that there are no worries at Arsenal, so we should trust that it’ll all work out, just like that Sampha song. You know I wouldn’t write something like that unless it came from a good place.

Putting money on the obvious isn’t always a winning idea (copium trigger warning)

Liverpool spent £400m last summer, and we all thought that was it; Arsenal’s progress was about to be sledge-hammered by some wow signings… we were wrong. Badly wrong. But does anyone ever hold their hands up when rich transfers flunk? No.

Spending the most money doesn’t always equate to the best outcomes. This has been the whole United model for 10 years. It is the entire Chelsea project. Even Spurs have spent a fortune and have back to back 17th places. Arsenal did not get to where they are by being the biggest spenders, they got their the hard way, making smart decisions.

If I were to be really harsh, last summers signings were mostly floor raisers and many of them didn’t live up to the billing. We packed the squad and the packers allowed us to suffer less when inevitbable big ticket injuries landed. But were we massively better at expanding margins last season? I’d say no. We just had more of the fine ones roll our way.

The amount you spend isn’t always equal to the success you get out the back end. Liverpool went backwards, barely made Champions League, sacked their manager and lost their football CEO.

There are plenty of players available that could move the needle, especially when the reality of our campaign last season, that no one wants to talk about, is this… we won the Premier League with monster injuries and those players will be more available this season.

My hot take? Fitness will be more key to what we do next season than big signings.

… oh, you read my post from yesterday, and you are concerned here as well? I’m sorry man. Just a lot of negativity out here right now.

Let’s quickly chat on something more promising…

England played the most pointless game of 2026… the 3rd place play-off. They smashed France in a brutal 10-goal showing. Declan was immense, so was Saka, this is how the numbers finished.

Minutes played since August 2025:

• Declan Rice — 5,394

• Chelsea — 5,310

• Liverpool — 5,130

• Tottenham — 4,680

• Man Utd — 3,600

Ugly. Take nothing away from what I penned yesterday. If Declan is in the starting 11 for the Community Shield, we are finished.

BUT… I like this interview from Saka.

‘Yeah, I’m fit, I’m fit’

Ok, that’s all I got today… see you in the comments. x

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Just a quick debrief for your wonderful eyes.

William Saliba surgery catastrophising on the internet is just for clicks, sure, he’ll be out, but don’t buy into random French accounts pretending they have the diagnosis and the name of the doctor he’s working with. It’s all nonsense. He’ll be out, no doubt, but talks of December are totally wrong.

The big decision is what the club does about the stand-in. Can we rely on Mosquera to take on that role? Ben White will probably not be here at the start of the season and even if he were, not exactly Mr Reliable from a physical perspective, is he? Jurrien Timber is an option; it might be better for him to ease himself in as a centre back… or the club could just go out and sign someone.

I’m not a fan of Konsa and I don’t like the idea of John Stones because his ligaments are made of lettuce. If we don’t make a move, it does leave us light, so one would imagine the club is going to have to find a value option. But, Mosquera, season 2… he SHOULD be the guy, right? If he’s not, what is going on here?

All of this speaks to the immense challenges we have going into season two. There are many layers to the problems ahead, physical, culture-related, staffing, and the overall cadence of the new season, which is not ideal.

I’m here to put a stake in the dusty ground of a summer-baked pitch… I think storm clouds could be gathering on the horizon, and I’m scared.

Let’s begin…

I’ve been here before on firings, but Arteta seems to have moved extremely aggressively against his backroom team, despite a lot of the issues probably being more closely tied to his belief systems and those of coaches like Gabriel Heinze who have a… let’s say, a more ‘traditional’ view on player fitness and what a gritty mentality is all about (always the ones you most suspect, right?). Here’s something Heinze-related for you to ponder when you’re hemming and hawing about how Arsenal land on diabolical fitness situations every April.

Also on Monday, Fox Sports reported some of the details of Heinze’s demands on the players, including that he and his staff denied them water during training and that the team’s medical staff had to step in. A club source said that Heinze and his staff were constantly at odds with the team’s trainers, sports science staff and medical personnel.

The Athletic was able to confirm that during pre-season training, Heinze and his staff sought to mimic the number of water breaks that the players would receive on a match day. Both the players and training staff requested to increase those breaks during practice. The matter was discussed internally and it did not occur again.

After midfielder Emerson Hyndman tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee during the international break earlier in June, one current Atlanta United player told The Athletic, “They broke him. They’re killing the guys with two practices a day. The staff haven’t given a day off in weeks.”

I’m not saying the above is going on at Arsenal, merely that it points to a machismo mindset that we’ve heard from Arteta when referencing fitness in the past. Remember, the man screaming all day long in his ear is the person he’s closest to at Arsenal both professionally and personally… and that chunk of text is said guy’s belief system — whether he’s tamed it or not. Let’s be honest, Heinze’s views aren’t a million miles away from this.

Look at the top players in the world, they play 70 matches every three days and you have to do that. If we put something different in their minds I think that would be a huge mistake.

Guess who said that 4 years ago and has had injury issues every season since?

When I read stuff like this, the part of my brain that forces me to ponder whether the chemtrails in the sky are part of a global conspiracy to control the weather starts to synthesise what has been going on at Arsenal with the firings…

… the firings that all came after a friend of Arteta came to town to run an impartial audit. I’m not implying there were no problems, but did this random consultant really come in, look at what was going on, and say… lose these guys, they’re holding you back? After we won the league? No improvements offered, no process adjustments, just fire a bunch of people? Seems crazy for a consultant and very unsophisticated. Things were so bad, the only solve on offer was… termination. Folk that had been at Arsenal years… gone? Was the intent to get better people in? Or to find people who would be more aligned with the machismo views that seem core to Arteta’s identity?

There are always consequences to this style of management style.

Sacrificing good people for very little reason strikes fear into an organisation. It can also weaken the commitment of folk who thought the ‘we are a big family’ chat meant something. If you know that one day, out of the blue, you could find your Achilles severed with a bag over your head, getting marched to the car park… and the rationale for said corporate execution is not something the shop floor believes was fair, how does it impact behaviour? Does it encourage a more open environment where experts challenge bullsh*t dogma? Does it lead to more blind obedience? Does it create cliques? Does it create hidden power structures that lead to inefficient decisions? What is the standard if the obedient people can lose their heads the same way terrible talent is axed? It’s very confusing and can have negative consequences for the culture. Just look at how Mourinho dressing rooms go when he pulls similar types of moves.

Also, do not exclude the players from this. They get very attached to backroom staff who cultivate close relations with them during some very dark times. They also gossip the same way we do. They have WhatsApp slander groups as well.

I know I’ve said this before, but losing your job in football is tougher than losing your typical corpo job in the city. There simply aren’t that many big jobs in England - sorry, in football, full stop. Even if there are jobs, you could end up having to move your family hundreds of miles away… or to another country entirely. James Ellis, exArsenal Technical Director, ended up at Bristol City. What a coup for them, but it isn’t out at Arsenal, into another Premier League club, even for the most experienced and talented people.

When you do chop talent that took you to a Premier League title and a Champions League final, you best believe you have to make sure that the next batch of people you bring in are at the very top of the game with lots of experience, plucked from the far reaches of the world based on insane recruitment stratagems (not concentrated in one country), with résumés dripping in whitepapers, awards, and plaudits from top-level managers and coaches. If they are not, you have a problem. You cannot fight it when someone lovely is fired for someone exceptional (Ramsdale > Raya). But if that is not the case, it can have terrible ramifications. If a system is not built on merit, it is built on something else. That something else is never good, and people always smell it.

Have Arsenal upgraded exceptionally? Do the résumés of all these new hires look like world-class moves? We just won the Premier League, are we picking off folk with 15 years of winning experience — or true innovators in the field with extensive records that make the firings look worthy? I don’t know. But the Arsenal shop floor will.

The final concern I have is that ripping out a huge chunk of institutional knowledge in one hit, bringing in a group of people, some with questionable experience levels… and hoping they can:

• Tame a domineering manager.

• Learn the business (tech, tools, politics).

• Manage a horrible World Cup summer.

• Deal with some chronic injury issues.

• Gel with the players.

• Gel with the interconnected nature of all the other new staff they need to work closely with.

Feels quite high risk, wouldn’t you say? New people come with new ideas. They fight to push new ideas to justify value. They suggest new technology, new processes, different ways of doing things… all of this can have disruptive consequences for a well-oiled factory machine. Also, think of the power vacuum and the bar fight to fill it.

Next concern is the players… the thing I will be watching for is how soon Arteta brings players back. August 16th in the Community Shield. If we see players like Declan Rice in that game, we are in trouble next season. These guys should be getting proper time off to recover. If we’re seeing a full team of World Cup heroes, that’ll set the tone for what’s coming next season and that’ll be trouble.

Regardless of what the coach wants, I do not expect players to play through chronic injuries again this season. At some point, they’ll listen to their bodies, and refuse to go along with it. Pain is your body saying NO… if you ignore it long enough, you get Saliba’d… my gut is that last season players like Big Gabi, Saliba, Timber, Odegaard, and Kai played through the pain to get the big trophy. I would be shocked if they’re as willing this season. There is going to be a blip with performances as there always is… but I think you’re more likely to see players just say, no, not this time.

Final worry… unless Arteta works some extreme magic with Stan K, I think we’re going to have to shift players this summer. Talk of £400m spend again feels a little bit off. Bruno, Tzolis, and Rogers… that seems more likely where we land. Is that enough muscle to work past the problems with the spin I talked about above? Maybe.

A big start is the great hope… momentum is a wonderful thing. If we start strong and never look back, we could defeat the monsters under the bed. But a lot has to go right there. New players have to settle, broken players need to mend well, and we have to hope that all my chatter is just a load of waffle.

I also have a tiny bit of hope that other clubs around us are going to have similar issues… but worse ones with new coaches, new players, and old problems they won’t have fully addressed.

This is a big season ahead for Mikel Arteta. He is now, officially, the King of Arsenal Football Club. How will he use the power? Who will check it? How do we make sure we don’t suffer the same fate we did last time we handed the keys to the kingdom to one man. Too much power can shift focus, push you into bad decisions, and make you forget what got you to the promised land. This is going to be a pivotal season for Arsenal, and I’m going on record, I am worried that it might be a bad one if things continue down the path they are right now.

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